North Carolina heads to Tallahassee for a noon game at Florida State on Saturday, taking with it a three-game win streak and more confidence than at any previous time this season.
The Tar Heels have defeated Notre Dame, Miami on the road and Syracuse back at home to improve to 8-4 overall and 3-2 in the ACC. The Seminoles routed NC State on Wednesday night, 105-73, in a game they shot 71 percent from the field.
Previously, FSU last played Dec. 29 but then had three consecutive games postponed because of COVID protocols. The Noles are 6-2 overall and 2-1 in the ACC.
Here are 5 Keys for UNC to defeat FSU:
FSU's Swarm
As much as Roy Williams loves to rotate players in and out of the lineup, perhaps FSU Coach Leonard Hamilton does it even more. Ten Seminoles comprise his rotation in which the player among them who plays the least, Nathanael Jack, averages 5.8 points per contest.
As effective as the different players can be on the offensive end, it’s how they get after it defensively that could be most troubling to the Tar Heels. FSU will defend everywhere on the court and often with players who have exceptional length. FSU’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom, is No. 39 in the nation at 93.2, and using wave after wave of players who are all willing defenders is one of the reasons Hamilton’s teams are always so good on D.
Carolina plays a lot of guys, too, but are they ready for what the Seminoles will throw at them? We will see.
The Noles Can Score, Too
Not always associated with its ability to score at a high rate, given how much attention FSU's defensive prowess usually gets, the Seminoles can score, too. They have for a while now, and this year's club is coming off a particularly impressive performance in 105-73 win over NC State, in which the Noles converted 71 percent of their field goal attempts.
It helps that M.J. Walker is one of the ACC’s top players. The 6-foot-5 senior guard leads the Noles with 15.8 points per game and is a go-to guy capable of getting off any kind of shot. But he has plenty of help.
Scottie Barnes is one of the most talented freshmen in the nation and is second on the team averaging 11.1 points per game. The 6-foot-9 forward also averages 4.1 assists per game, so he will be a handful for the Tar Heels.
Overall, FSU is averaging 78.8 points per game, shoot 46.6 percent from the field, including 37.2 percent from 3-point range (No. 54 in the nation), and it’s adjusted offensive efficiency is No. 13 in the nation at 113.1. The Seminoles assist on 15 of their 27 field goals per game.
Carolina must play at a high level on defense to have a chance Saturday.
UNC Still Has An Ingterior Advantage
FSU always has a ton of length, and this year’s team is no different, as evidenced by nobody among its 10-man rotation is shorter than 6-foot-4 and seven of the 10 players are at least 6-foot-6. Five are 6-foot-8 or taller, with 7-foot-1 Balsa Koprivca the only Nole taller than 6-foot-9.
The point here is that while the Noles have great length on the wing and are big inside, Carolina has an advantage in the paint. Not only are the Heels collectively taller and bigger – strong bodies – but they are more skilled, too. FSU’s mission isn’t to always pound it inside, but that is Carolina’s, and the Heels are coming off a game versus Syracuse in which they executed that directive quite well.
Furthermore, FSU doesn’t have its typical volume of shot blockers, so the Tar Heels should have an advantage inside and must ride that to a victory.
Yep, Own The Boards
In staying with the above theme, FSU is still a solid team inside and is quite effective on the backboards, a reason it has a plus-4.4 rebound margin advantage over its opponents. Four Seminoles average 5 or more boards per game, but rebounding is UNC’s primary strength, and the Tar Heels must use that to its advantage every time it plays.
Carolina is No. 2 in the nation with plus-13.2 rebound margin and is coming off a game in which it scored 24 second-chance points off of 24 offensive rebounds. The Heels may not be that productive Saturday, especially since FSU won’t play a zone and will crash the boards more than Syracuse, but this is an area UNC must be much better than its opponents, especially quality clubs like the Seminoles.
Maturity Required
UNC’s freshmen have had some ups and downs this season, there’s no denying that, as they continue to grow and mature as players, especially guards RJ Davis and Caleb Love. To win at the Tucker Center, however, UNC’s youngins need to play above their years, because FSU is always one of the oldest and most experienced teams in the ACC, and this season is no different.
Six of Carolina’s players in its 10-man rotation are freshmen, and when Anthony Harris returns, which could be Saturday, seven of the 11 are freshmen – Harris played five games a year ago and redshirted. For FSU, however, its rotation includes three seniors, five juniors, a sophomore and a freshman, Barnes, who is one of the most talented players in the nation. Four of those Seminoles have redshirted.
Florida State will play like a grizzled team that understands exactly what Hamilton wants from them. UNC must match that some. Carolina will have its young moments, and maybe some youthful stretches, but overall, this game will test where the Tar Heels are in this respect. Also, there will be fans in the stands, a first for the Heels this season.
A crowd of 2,837 was allowed into the Tucker Center for FSU’s win Wednesday night, and included were the band and cheerleaders. UNC has played in front of only families all season, and probably not even 1,000 people combined in its 12 games. So how Carolina’s young players handle what will amount to a raucous crowd in the COVID college hoops era will be important, too.