North Carolina and Wisconsin will meet Friday in the first round of the South Region of the NCAA Tournament at Mackey Arena on Purdue’s campus, with the winner likely facing top seed Baylor on Sunday.
The No. 8 seed Tar Heels are making their 51st appearance in the NCAA Tournament, yet this is only the fourth time they have been an eight seed. UNC has never been a lower seed. Carolina is 18-10 after going 10-6 in the ACC plus winning two games last week in Greensboro at the ACC Tournament.
The No. 9 seed Badgers are making their 25th appearance in the NCAAs. They enter this contest 17-12 overall after going 10-10 in the Big Ten and losing in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament.
The game will tip at 7:10 pm and air on CBS.
Play Older
Carolina is the 325th most experienced team in the nation in part because six of its 10 rotation players are freshmen. The Tar Heels are young and sometimes play young, even real young at times. But they have matured during the course of the season and have defeated much older, more experienced teams and shown they don’t always have to look and play like freshmen.
This is a key in any game, obviously, but it’s even more so in the NCAA Tournament and because the Tar Heels are facing the 22nd most experienced team in the nation. In fact, one can easily argue the Badgers’ top five players are all seniors, plus they have another senior in their rotation.
In addition, while UNC senior Garrison Brooks has played 106 minutes in five NCAA Tournament games in his career, the rest of the Tar Heels have logged a total of 33 minutes combined from Andrew Platek and Leaky Black. No other scholarship Heel has been in an NCAA game.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, has 152 minutes of NCAA experience on its roster, but in the Badgers’ lone NCAA game in 2019, five current players logged 107 minutes and scored 26 points.
Wisconsin doesn’t beat itself because it’s an older, smart team that understands its mission. Carolina must play older than its actual experience level.
Play Fast
Part of UNC playing with greater maturity can be reflected in how much it can control the tempo. If Wisconsin does, the Tar Heels can still win, but the young guards must not get impatient and make poor decisions. That said, if the Heels can speed up the game and force the Badgers to make multiple adjustments, this could be Carolina’s game.
The Heels are more comfortable going fast, especially over the last six weeks. Carolina hit the 80-point mark once in its first 11 contests but has done so in nine of its last 17 games, including all four of its 90-point performances coming over the last 10 contests. The higher scoring volume indicates the Heels have been faster on offense. The defense has helped speed things up as has improved decision making in most games by Caleb Love and RJ Davis.
The Badgers adjusted offensive tempo is No. 326 in the nation, while UNC’s is No. 44. Carolina struggled versus Clemson and Virginia, the two ACC teams that most compare to Wisconsin, and it should come as no surprise the Tigers and Cavaliers have adjusted tempo ratings of Nos. 338 and 357, respectively.
So, if UNC can get its jets going some, it will be in better position to win.
Defend The Perimeter
In Carolina’s 10 losses, opponents have converted 92 of 202 three-pointers, which is a scorching 45.5 percent. In UNC’s 18 victories, opponents are just 128-for-434 from the perimeter, which is 29.5 percent.
How the Heels defend Wisconsin on the perimeter could determine the outcome of this game because the Badgers will ride the three-ball to victories. In fact, 36.8 percent of Wisconsin’s scoring comes from outside shots compared to only 22.2 percent of UNC’s.
So, Carolina can’t let the Badgers go off from out there, which means UNC’s bigs will need to defend away from the basket. Wisconsin center Micah Potter, who is 6-foot-10, has attempted 93 threes on the season, converting 34, which is good for 36.6 percent.
The three main post players in the Badgers’ rotation, each of whom is 6-foot-9 or taller, have combined to convert 58 of 182 three-point attempts, and 6-foot-8 Aleem Ford is 43-for-123 (35 percent) on the season. So, Wisconsin’s big guys will step outside and shoot it quite a bit forcing the Heels’ bigs to get out there and defend well away from the basket.
Blast The Glass
Of course, the most important statistic to Roy Williams is going to make this list when looking at an NCAA Tournament game. And with the Tar Heels entering the contest having such a distinct advantage on the backboards, one would think given the numbers, it is paramount Carolina upholds that statistical edge.
Wisconsin is minus-1.7 on the season in rebound margin, which ranks the Badgers No. 241 in the nation in that respect. UNC, on the other hand, is ranked No. 1 at plus-10.6. Breaking it down even more, Wisconsin is No. 288 in the percent (23.6) of its own missed shots the Badgers grab. Carolina, however, is No. 1 nationally grabbing 41.3 percent of its missed shots.
Carolina should significantly outrebound Wisconsin, and it must also make its offensive rebounds pay off by converting a high percentage into points.
Hit Free Throws
In four of UNC’s 10 losses, the Tar Heels missed more free throw attempts than the point total of their defeat. In fact, the combined total of Carolina’s losses is 73 points, yet the Tar Heels missed 76 free throws in those games. Thus, UNC has converted just 122 of 198 free throw attempts in its losses, which is 61.6 percent.
In the Tar Heels’ last two losses, by two points at Syracuse and by three to Florida State last week in Greensboro, Carolina was 14-for-22 and 14-for-24, respectively, from the charity stripe. Slightly better and more acceptable numbers there and UNC could/should have won both contests.
Now, the Heels haven’t been scorching in their wins, hitting 69.8 percent with a season average for all games 66.8 percent.
So, in what should be a close, low-possession game, missed free throws could be a killer for the Tar Heels, so they must shoot respectable percentage to enhance their chances at winning.