2/18/2023 basketball Edit

AJ: Four Wins In Nine Days?

UNC's game at NC State on Sunday begins a four-ganme, nine-day stretch that will be huge regarding its NCAA viability. (USA Today)

Andrew Jones • TarHeelIllustrated

Publisher

Andrew Jones has covered sports for 26 years, including all major college & professional sports for daily newspapers & national sites. He's done radio and TV & is entering his seventh year at THI.

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CHAPEL HILL – Four games in nine days, and with that, North Carolina’s basketball season quite possibly hangs in the balance.

Of course, there’s always the ACC Tournament, though winning four games in four days while not using much of the bench seems like a greater task than winning four in the next nine days, with two against league dregs Notre Dame and Florida State (on the road), and Virginia at home.

The odds of UNC taking care of business right now is greater than cutting down the nets in Greensboro in a couple of weeks. And it begins Sunday at No. 23 NC State. What a way to start the crucial stretch!

The Wolfpack is a better team than the Tar Heels right now, and will have its base frothing at the mouth with more fueling its hate for all things light blue than usual: Armando Bacot trolling with sunglasses; Leaky Black’s foul on Terquavion Smith; Caleb Love’s “not a rivalry” comments; and the Pack surely smells blood in the water.

The Heels are reeling right now, ensconced in a plume of uncertainty. UNC Coach Hubert Davis finally spoke publicly this week about tweaking some things offensively, including player combinations on the floor. Some Heels also spoke about guys needing to step up, and even expressed concern about making the NCAA Tournament.

And this isn’t just any old mediocre team trying to get into the big dance. We’re talking about the Preseason No. 1 team in the nation that entered the season with a “championship or bust” mindset and slogan. Yet, here they are 16-10 overall and 8-7 in a very down ACC.

If the NCAA brackets were released today, the Tar Heels would not be among the 68 teams in the field. NC State, however, would, and serve as a very dangerous foe for anyone it might face.

Will UNC's brain trust be all smiles after the Heels play four games over the next nine days? (Jerome Ibrahim/THI)

To gain inclusion, Carolina, which is 0-9 in Quad 1 games and rated No. 45 in the NET, must either win these next four, or win out in Greensboro. Or, win four of the next five, with the fifth game remaining in the regular season at home versus Duke.

But let’s stay away from that for now, and keep with the next four. Here’s why they are musts: The Heels desperately need a quality road win and Q1 win, and would get both by beating State. It might also get them squarely on the NCAA fence, but the Heels wouldn’t be in the clear yet.

Then, they must win at Notre Dame on Wednesday night. The Irish have two ACC wins, and a loss there would be highly damaging. Then, Virginia visits the Smith Center on Saturday offering UNC another chance at a Q1 win, plus the Heels cannot afford a third home loss in four tries.

Finally, a week from Monday, Carolina heads to Tallahassee for a date with 8-20 (right now) Florida State. Again, a loss would nearly crush UNC’s hopes.

So, two games are can't-ever-ever-ever-ever lose affairs, and then winning the other two would get them onto the right side of the fence. Imagine, four wins in the next nine days and suddenly the Heels would stand at 20-10 overall and 12-7 in the ACC with five days to get ready for Duke’s visit to close out the regular season. And a win there… Again, no need to jump ahead, but that could also be a Q1 game, offering UNC another opportunity to more than solidify its spot in the field.

Five wins and Carolina will dance and probably have a single-digit seed. Four wins, and the Heels will still make it. Three, and then Greensboro becomes mighty important. Anything less than that over the next two weeks, notably the next nine days, and cutting down the nets in the ACC Tournament will be the championship-or-bust team’s only shot at making the field.

All of the talk about Carolina’s process, tweaking this and adjusting that, doesn’t matter anymore. It’s time the Tar Heels win some games, or they will secure their spot as the first AP preseason No. 1 team since the NCAA field expanded to 64 in 1985 to not go dancing.

So yeah, this is an enormous stretch starting Sunday.