Pro Football Focus is one of the top college (and professional) football statistical breakdown and analytical sites in the industry. And of all the win probability sites out there, it is among the most respected.

So, for the sake of fun but also seriousness, we decided to take a look at PFF’s projection probability numbers for North Carolina’s 2024 season that commences August 29 at Minnesota.

First of all, PFF ranks all 133 FBS teams heading into this season, and the Tar Heels are at No. 25.

PFF’s projections are that UNC will win 7.9 games, has an 86.51% chance of making a bowl game, an 8.92% chance at winning the ACC title, and a 0.79% chance at winning the national championship. The Tar Heels’ schedule strength is rated No. 61.

Rounding it out, PFF sees Carolina as an 8-4 team at the conclusion of the regular season. Two lock wins are at home against Charlotte and N.C. Central, and a lock loss is at Florida State. That leaves nine games with a 6-3 mark.

PFF has UNC as a 1.5-point favorite in its opener at Minnesota. Accepting that, it puts the Tar Heels at 3-1 with eight other games to project, in which UNC will go 5-3 if it matches PFF’s projection.

So, what teams will comprise Carolina’s five wins and three losses in the other eight contests?

*Week four, UNC hosts James Madison, a program that has gone 13-5 in two seasons in FBS. A member of the Sun Belt Conference, the Dukes were an FCS powerhouse, and could pose a problem to the Tar Heels. In fact, PFF ranks JMU No. 32, but UNC should also prevail that day. So, that’s a fourth win.