North Carolina has won three consecutive games since we last took an extensive look at the Tar Heels’ NCAA Tournament resume, thus enhancing their resume, but not by as much as some might expect.
Coming off the loss at Florida State, UNC was 8-5 overall, 3-3 in the ACC and was at No. 51 in the NET. Right now, however, on games through Jan. 31, the Tar Heels are 11-5 overall, 6-3 in the ACC, and No. 48 in the NET.
UNC has the fifth highest NET rating among ACC teams, but the numbers suggest that while Carolina is heading in the right direction, it still has plenty of work to do. And with the ACC struggling, there aren’t many opportunities for the Tar Heels to notch some significant wins.
It should be noted that UNC is 0-4 in Quad 1 games, though it was 0-5 the last time we did this report. What changed? The road game at NC State dropped from a Q1 to a Q2 game because the Wolfpack is now rated No. 85, and road games versus teams 1-75 are counted as Q1 games. The full breakdown:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75. Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135. Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240. Quadrant 4: Home 161-347, Neutral 201-347, Away 241-347.
The NCAA selection committee uses the quadrant measuring stick in stead of the RPI to help determine teams’ worthiness. So when gauging where UNC stands, it’s important to take that formula into consideration.
Before getting into the rest of UNC’s schedule, let’s look at the Tar Heels’ seven nonconference opponents and how they rate in the NET, which will play an important role in what happens with the Tar Heels:
UNC's Nonconference Opponent's NET Rankings
*Overall and conference records also noted.
No. 6 – Iowa (12-4 overall, 6-3 Big Ten)
No. 14 – Texas (11-3 overall, 5-2 Big 12)
No. 57 – Stanford (10-6 overall, 6-4 Pac-12)
No. 74 – Kentucky (5-10 overall, 4-4 SEC)
No. 176 – UNLV (6-8 overall, 3-4 MWC)
No. 180 – NC Central (2-3 overall, 0-0 MEAC)
No. 226 – College of Charleston (5-8 overall, 3-3 CAA)
ACC NET Rankings
*Overall and ACC records noted, plus if UNC still plays them or not.
No. 8 – Virginia (11-3 overall, 7-1 ACC) <UNC at UVA>
No. 25 – Florida State (10-3 overall, 6-2 ACC) <UNC hosts FSU>
No. 31 – Virginia Tech (13-3 overall, 7-2 ACC) <UNC hosts VT>
No. 45 – Louisville (10-4 overall, 5-3 ACC) <UNC hosts Louisville)
No. 48 – UNC
No. 51 – Syracuse (10-5 overall, 4-4 ACC) <UNC at Cuse)
No. 55 – Georgia Tech (8-5 overall, 4-3 ACC) <does not play again>
No. 59 – Clemson (10-5 overall, 4-5 ACC) <UNC at Clemson>
No. 62 – Duke (7-5 overall, 5-3 ACC) <UNC plays home and home>
No. 81 – Notre Dame (6-9 overall, 3-6 ACC) <does not play again>
No. 85 – NC State (7-6 overall, 3-5 ACC) <does not play again>
No. 90 – Pittsburgh (8-5 overall, 4-3 ACC) <does not play again>
No. 105 – Wake Forest (5-7 overall, 2-7 ACC) <does not play again>
No. 128 – Boston College (3-10 overall, 1-6 ACC) <UNC at BC>
No. 162 – Miami (6-10 overall, 2-9 ACC) <UNC hosts Miami>
**Note: UNC and Clemson still have a game in Chapel Hill to make up.
It should also be noted the NCAA will use a curve this season when selecting teams. They will use similar parameters from past years, but a 15-13 resume this season might look more like a 21-14 in past years because of reduced nonconference games and the craziness of postponements and cancellations.
THI's Take
Carolina has five more regular season games that would currently qualify as Quad 1 opportunities, though that could change either way, plus it’s possible Stanford could move up to a Q1 game. So this remains quite fluid. What’s important is most of UNC’s remaining games, aside from BC and Miami, can hep the Tar Heels’ resume. The Heels must get a Q1 win or two, and it could land more than that. But if the Heels take care of business at home, and they are 6-0 in the Smith Center, and sneak a few more on the road, they will not only get into the NCAA Tournament but could land a fairly favorable seed.
