UNC's Next Mandate: End The 7-Game Skid In Charlottesville

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CHAPEL HILL – A year ago, North Carolina Coach Hubert Davis made no bones about it: the Tar Heels’ losing streak to Virginia must come to an end, he said ahead of their first meeting of the season.

The Heels had dropped seven consecutive games to the Cavaliers overall but a win at the Smith Center ended the Wahoos’ run, and an emphatic Carolina victory in the ACC Tournament put an exclamation mark on it.

A seven-game skid to Tony Bennett’s team still exists, however, only this one is on the road, which is where the Tar Heels face the No. 13 Wahoos on Tuesday night at 9 PM on ESPN. UNC hasn’t won at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville in nearly 11 years. Its last triumph there was when Tyler Zeller rammed home a dunk with 13 seconds remaining giving UNC a 54-51 victory.

That was February 25, 2012. Zeller scored 20 points and grabbed six rebounds, and John Henson scored 15 points and pulled down 11 boards. Harrison Barnes had nine rebounds and Kendall Marshall handed out six assists that night.

Since then, though, the Tar Heels have dropped seven straight contests at JPJ. But it may not be the focus of Davis' pre-game speech to his team this time.

“I don’t see myself mentioning that to the team," he said Monday during the weekly ACC confernece call. ":I think the most important thing is to focus on is what is real, and that’s our preparation to see if we can play our best at Virginia against a really good basketball team.”

Breaking down UNC’s skid at UVA reveals some positively ugly numbers, but they do truly tell the tale.

The average score in the streak is Virginia 63.7, Carolina 53.4. UNC has shot 37.9 percent from the floor, including 27.5 percent from the perimeter, and has averaged 12.7 turnovers per contest. And remember, these are usually low-possession games.

Over the last four contests, the numbers have been more unsettling for the Tar Heels: UVA 57.5, UNC 46.8; the Heels have shot 34.0 percent from the floor, including 21.7 percent from beyond the arc; and Carolina has averaged 13.3 turnovers.

UNC (11-5, 3-2 ACC) has not reached the 50-point mark in each of its last four trips to Thomas Jefferson’s school.

“Obviously, they’re extremely well coached… ," Davis said. "Virginia is Virginia because they have a great team.”

To change the course up there, the Heels must marry themselves to the intent on getting Armando Bacot the ball in the post, and when he does have it, the senior must respond well to the double-teams that are surely coming from the Wahoos. In a way, that is the key to the game for UNC.

Virginia’s pack line defense has strangled the Heels, but an absolute with it is the Hoos (11-3, 3-2) will double the post, usually with two bigs. That is why Bacot’s recent improvements not only getting out of double-teams, but making something happen with his passes, could be an asset to the Heels in this game.

Bacot had 15 assists in UNC’s first 13 games, but in the last three, all against teams intent on doubling him, he has 12 assists. And the 6-foot-10 Preseason ACC Player of the Year hasn’t sacrificed his own scoring to get those dishes. He has scored 20 or more points in each of the last five games, a personal best at Carolina, averaging 21.3 and four assists over the last three contests.

Bacot knows the doubles are coming, and confidence gained dealing with them the last few games is fueling some optimism heading into this crucial clash.

“I never know with Virginia,” Bacot said. “Tony Bennett, obviously he’s a smart coach and he’s had a year to scout us to see what we do. So, it will be interesting to see looks they throw at us. Their big men have all improved a lot, they’ve got good size… It will definitely be a challenge.”

Hubert Davis is uber aware what Bacot will face Tuesday night, enough so he joked about it following the Tar Heels’ win over Notre Dame on Saturday at the Smith Center.

“Yeah, we’ll tweak it,” Davis said, generating laughter in the room with everyone understanding what the Heels are about to encounter. “We’ll take a look (more laughter). They double the bigs, I didn’t know that.”

Obviously, the humor reflects the clear understanding of what the Tar Heels will be up against in Charlottesville. And ending the 11-yer skid up there could come down to Bacot’s handling of the doubles and his subsequent production.