Last week, Pittsburgh shot 58.3 percent in the second half and closed the game outscoring North Carolina, 41-22, over the final 17 minutes of the contest in a 73-65 triumph in Chapel Hill.
On Saturday, the Tar Heels will visit Petersen Events Center with an opportunity at flipping that script on the Panthers, but it will require a vastly different performance.
So, here are 3 Keys for UNC (8-8 overall, 1-4 ACC) to defeat Pitt (11-6, 2-3):
Challenge The Shooters
Pitt’s offensive numbers remain very poor: No. 300 in scoring (66.3 ppg); No. 294 in FG percent (41.3); No. 305 in 3-point FG percent (29.9) and No. 198 in assist/turnover ratio (0.96). KenPom has Pitt at No. 95 in offensive adjusted efficiency and No. 296 in effective FG percent.
Yet, last week at the Dean Dome, the Panthers were 14-for-24 from the field in the second half, including 8-for-12 from 3-point range. Trey McGowens was 4-for-8 versus the Heels but is 3-for-10 in the two games since then and is shooting 30.5 percent from beyond the arc on the season against everyone other than Carolina. Justin Champagnie was 4-for-7 versus the Heels but is 1-for-6 since and is shooting 21.8 percent from outside all opponents other than UNC.
Pitt is not a good shooting team, but it was in Chapel Hill in part because it had too many open looks and drives to the basket. The Heels must clamp down more to avoid suffering the same fate.
The Point Of The Matter
Aside from a couple of performances from Jeremiah Francis, the point guard situation has been a serious area of concern since Cole Anthony went down, and for the Tar Heels to snag a victory they need to be better and more efficient at the position Saturday.
In the seven games Anthony has missed, three different Tar Heels have started at the point, and the combined numbers for the starters in that spot for those games are: 11-for-47 (23.4 percent) from the field, including 2-for-21 (9.5%), from 3-point range; 21 assists (3.0 per), 16 turnovers (2.3 per), and 4.7 points per contest.
Whoever is on the ball, be it Francis, K.J. Smith or Leaky Black – or even Anthony, if he returns – they must protect the ball and get the team flowing in the half court, and when shot opportunities come their way, they need to knock down a few. Manage the game, make some things happen and give the team a lift are also musts for Carolina to get a W.
The Boards, Again
Dominating the backboards is usually a part of the keys for reasons explained many times. It’s the most important stat line to Roy Williams and is the one element of the 2019-20 Tar Heels that most resembles past teams.
In the first meeting, UNC outrebounded Pitt 42-27, including a 14-5 advantage on the offensive glass. Carolina outscored the Panthers 12-4 on second-chance points. Yet, the Heels still found a way to lose, somewhat nullifying the whole own-the-glass-win-the-game notion.
The difference, however, is the other parts of UNC’s game just wasn’t there for most of the second half, and that’s why the Tar Heels lost. Allow wide open shooters and the rebounding numbers aren’t likely to matter much. So, if the Heels much more effectively handle the two areas above and dominate the boards, it’s the glass work that will put an exclamation mark on their performance.
