North Carolina travels to Duke on Saturday for the first meeting between the rivals this season and the first time they have faced each other with both unranked since Feb. 27, 1960.
UNC is coming off arguably its worst performance of the season in a 63-50 loss at Clemson while Duke last played Monday and lost 77-75 at Miami.
As of Friday, Carolina is No. 55 in the NET and is 0-5 in Quad 1 games, Duke is No. 66 and is 1-3 in Q1 games. The Tar Heels are 11-6 overall and 6-4 in the ACC, the Blue Devils are 7-6 and 5-4.
The game tips at 6 pm.
Here are our 5 Keys for UNC to defeat Duke:
Hurt & Someone Else
Okay, Matthew Hurt (18.8 ppg, 53.2 percent FG, 42 percent from 3) is going to get his. Carolina can try and limit his touches as it did keeping Pitt’s Justin Champagnie to just nine field goal attempts last week, but Hurt will still have an impact on the game. That’s okay, because UNC can still win even if Hurt has a big night. But the Tar Heels must keep someone else on the Blue Devils from having a huge game.
Jalen Johnson, a 6-foot-9 freshman, is certainly capable and is Duke’s second best player. But he sometimes disappears for stretches in games, so the Heels must make sure he does that a lot Saturday.
Duke’s adjusted offensive efficiency is No. 27 in the nation, which might surprise some, so the Devils do have ways to score, even though they’ve only hit the 80-point mark twice. So, a second player often has a nice game much of the time for the Devils, and that’s what UNC must guard against.
It might be because someone like Wendell Moore (8.4 ppg), Jordan Goldwire (6.8 ppg), or even one of its freshman guards score well above their norms. So, Carolina simply must not allow someone else to go off to complement Hurt.
Limit The Fouls
Duke shoots 71.4 percent from the free throw line but the Blue Devils don’t get to the line with the kind of frequency more vintage Coach K teams have, as Duke has attempted 37 fewer free throws than its opponents. Compared to UNC, Duke attempts 15.3 free throws a game while UNC attempts 22.1 per contest.
Furthermore, UNC can’t afford for any of its interior players to get into foul trouble. The Heels have a clear advantage in the paint, and foul issues, like Armando Bacot picking up four in 19 minutes at Clemson this past Tuesday, would minimize Carolina’s greatest edge in this matchup.
Don’t let Duke be out of character owning the charity stripe, and UNC should have a better chance at winning.
Paint Presence
Carolina has one clear advantage going into this game, and it’s interior group versus Duke’s. Well, it’s that when Duke has Johnson and Hurt on the floor, it’s playing two non-traditional big guys who are more comfortable playing – and defending – away from the lane. Both can score inside, they’re really good players so they will score some inside, but they may struggle trying to defend Carolina’s post game.
Now, 7-foot- freshman Mark Williams could be a factor for Duke in this game. He’s long and strong and has played some in recent games showing his game has grown some since he arrived. But he’s also been on the court for just 94 total minutes this season for a reason. He can help in stints, but it’s doubtful he will play a lot because if he does, either Hurt or Johnson likely would be on the bench.
So, UNC must establish ownership of the paint early and ride it to a victory.
Hit Some Threes
Mike Krzyzewski would prefer his team always play man-to-man defense extending its denials well onto the perimeter, but this Blue Devils’ squad has had issues defending the dribble drive and just hasn’t been to typical Duke standards playing man, so he’s gone to a zone a bit lately. Expect some zone Saturday because it may help the Devils deal with UNC’s interior and because the Tar Heels haven’t shown they can consistently hit from the perimeter, with the exception of a few games in January.
So, Carolina would be well served hitting some threes, especially fairly early in the game. If Duke goes zone and it limits interior touches, UNC must hit threes to have a chance at winning. Period.
Board Work Must Matter
UNC grabbed 10 more rebounds than Clemson on Tuesday but still lost. As noted in the 5 Keys before that game, and several others this year, the Heels must dominate on the offensive glass and turn those boards into second chance points. That did not happen at Clemson and it could be an issue versus Duke, especially with Williams is on the floor.
But this is one of UNC’s offensive weapons, so it must show up for the Heels to notch a needed victory. Duke is No. 81 in the nation at plus-3.9 on the boards while the Tar Heels are No. 1 at plus-11.2. Duke is good on the glass, but UNC should be better, and in this game, it might have to be a lot better on both backboards.