Published Feb 24, 2022
5 Keys To Beating State
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Andrew Jones  •  TarHeelIllustrated
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North Carolina is back in action Saturday, as the Tar Heels travel 20 miles east to take on rival NC State at PNC Arena for a 2 PM tip.

Carolina has won two consecutive games after a puzzling home loss to Pittsburgh last week, and overall enter at 20-8, including 12-5 in the ACC. If UNC wins two more regular season games, it is guaranteed a double-bye at the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn in two weeks.

The Wolfpack has dropped 15 of its last 19 games, including at home Wednesday night to Boston College. That’s just four wins since Dec. 9 for the Wolfpack, and the Pack overall own an 11-17 record, including 4-13 in the ACC. State currently sits in last place in the conference.

Here are 5 Keys for UNC to defeat NC State:

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Respect The Pack

While PNC Arena will be hopping at the outset, and the venom from the red-clad faithful will be intense, perhaps the Tar Heels can use that to generate some juice. Or, as the team looks to grow and collectively mature, they can respect the Wolfpack and recognize that if not ready to go, this is a losable game.

Never mind State’s record. Never mind the fact that the Wolfpack’s last two losses are to Pittsburgh and BC – UNC also lost to Pitt recently. And never mind that Carolina blew out the Pack last month, leading by as many as 35 points in that contest. Instead, this should be about respecting their own preparation and the process in getting better each game out.

UNC can lose this game if not dialed in, so that could be half the battle.

Armando Early & Often

NC State has struggled mightily defending opposing big men, including Wednesday when BC’s Quinten Post went for 18 points against the Pack. Bacot had 18 points and 13 boards in the first meeting versus State, but he attempted just 10 shots because guards RJ Davis (17 points) and Caleb Love (21) were on fire.

The Heels need to take the energy from the building early, and that means going inside to Bacot right out of the gate and often. Plus, the Heels need to get him more involved regardless.

Bacot hasn’t attempted double-digit number of shots from the field over each of the last four games, and for Carolina to be at its best, it must run more stuff through to post. So go to Bacot because it’s the wisest approach versus the Wolfpack, but also to establish Bacot again.

Defend The Three

One way for the Tar Heels to find themselves on the losing end of this game is to allow the Wolfpack a bevy of open perimeter shots. State may be struggling this season, but it has some guys fully capable of going off. State is ranked No. 183 nationally shooting 33.8 percent from beyond the arc, but freshman Terquavion Smith has made 80 threes this season, Jericole Hellems shooting 39.2 percent, and Casey Morsell is at 37.5 percent.

Defending the three hasn’t exactly been one of Carolina’s specialties this season, and it has haunted the Heels against teams not as capable as the Pack from the perimeter. It can be a great equalizer in this game, so UNC’s mission is to contest outside shots enough so State doesn’t get going out there.

As Usual, So Goes Caleb...

As the season has gone on, the Tar Heels have become less predictable, so it doesn’t require much basic understanding of the game to understand that if Caleb Love plays well the Heels usually win, and when he doesn’t, they are much more likely to lose.

UNC is 8-0 when Love scores at least 20 points in a game, and the Tar Heels are 12-0 when Love hands out at least five assists in a game. They are 1-4 when he scores only in single digits, and the Heels are 4-5 in games he has more turnovers than assists.

So, it isn’t difficult to understand that as Caleb Love goes, so go the Tar Heels. If he plays well Saturday, Carolina most certainly will win. If he doesn’t, someone else must step up and be huge or the Heels could lose.

Crowd Fuel

Carolina is 6-3 in true road games this season, including pulling out wins in the best road environments in which it has played. The Heels handled the chaos at Charleston well once they adapted, they managed to deal with the noise at Georgia Tech after a 19-2 run by the Yellow Jackets, they dealt with the anger and debris at Louisville, the always-loud levels at Littlejohn, and last weekend at Cassell Coliseum, which was easily the best environment UNC has played in away from home this season.

If State is playing well early, PNC will be much louder and far more vitriolic than anything most of the UNC players have experienced. And, what has become apparent, this group feeds off of road environments.

So, if the Heels can be fueled by the State crowd and not adversely affected by them, this could be a successful trip. Caleb Love had some fun with fans at Louisville, Clemson, and Virginia Tech, and if he’s jawing some and three-ball gesturing to Wolfpack fans Saturday, especially the students, than it’s likely he and the Heels are playing well enough to win.