North Carolina will face No. 5 Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl on Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, in a game few give the Tar Heels a chance at winning.
UNC may have been given better odds had four of its best players not opted out of the game, but even still, A&M was going to be favored no matter what and the task would be considerable for the Heels at full strength.
That said, No. 13 UNC still has weapons and plenty of talent to compete, so what must the Tar Heels do to defeat the Aggies?
Carolina comes in at 8-3 overall and A&M is 8-1.
Here are 5 Keys for UNC to defeat Texas A&M:
Run The Ball
A&M enters with the No. 3 run defense in the nation allowing only 92.2 yards per game. Alabama, as explosive and well-rounded as it is, managed just 3.9 yards a rush versus the Aggies, though the Crimson Tide did blow out A&M using a big passing day. Auburn, which lost at home to the Aggies, managed 6.5 yards per attempt, so it’s not as if Mike Elko’s defense has shut down everyone on the ground.
UNC won’t have Michael Carter or Javonte Williams and D.J. Jones is out with an injury, so that means Josh Henderson, British Brooks, and Elijah Green will carry the load. Are they ready?
They are at Carolina for a reason. Green and Henderson are certainly talented enough to play for a major P5 offense and UNC’s offensive line is intact. Many of the holes Carter and Williams ran through were enormous. The difference in them getting six yards and 12-15 yards often was their explosiveness through the second level. But the holes were regularly there and could be versus the Aggies.
The OL must open holes, and if it does, the run game will be there. Green and Henderson are more than capable of darting through the designed holes and otherwise. The question is, will they?
Keep Sam Clean
This has been a constant any time the Tar Heels have faced a quality opponent: Keeping defenses off Sam Howell is paramount to UNC’s success. Howell was sacked 15 times in UNC’s three losses, but only 15 times in UNC’s eight victories. The numbers are cut and dry.
A&M has 24 sacks in nine games and defensive lineman Bobby Brown has one in each of the Aggies’ last six contests. So, how the game goes may follow the sacks-allowed stat line for the Tar Heels. Keep Howell clean, UNC has a chance at winning; if he gets dirty, the Heels will struggle.
Big Strikes
Dyami Brown was a sensational deep ball threat for Howell, and big strikes are essential for Phil Longo’s air raid offense to operate as designed. So, who will be the big-play guy Saturday? Is it senior Dazz Newsome, could he go out with a bang? Or is it Brown’s younger brother Khafre , who had a 76-yard touchdown at Virginia and an 87-yard reception (didn’t score) versus Wake Forest?
Maybe Antoine Green – 68-yarder at Virginia Tech and 50-yarder versus Virginia last season – is the guy. Can Emery Simmons stretch the field?
UNC needs someone to step into that role, and it likely will be one of those players. And they must do so Saturday night if the Tar Heels are to emerge with a victory.
The Trenches
Football schemes are littered with plenty of bells and whistles these days. Offensive coordinators love having toys and are intent on using them as often as they can. But the game is still won in the trenches and always will be. And for UNC, the line on the defensive side of the ball hasn’t been a strength, though it's shown improvement.
Texas A&M’s offensive line, the “Maroon Goons,” is loaded. Three second-team All-SEC guys, tons of experience, and a first-team All-SEC running back behind them makes this the toughest assignment UNC’s front has had all season. A&M is better than Notre Dame up front, so what must Carolina do to avoid being controlled as the Fighting Irish did the day after Thanksgiving?
Gap responsibility, strong engagement, read and react, and at least make some hits. The DTs don’t need to record a bunch of tackles, but if they can slow Isaiah Spiller’s progress through the holes just a tad, it might be enough for linebackers Jeremiah Gemmel and Eugene Asante plus the safeties and others to react and make plays. The d-line doesn’t need to be great, but it must be solid for UNC to have a chance.
This Is Who They Are
If things go poorly early, the Tar Heels must regroup and recognize the opted-out Heels aren’t going to crowd into a phone booth and put on their uniforms. They’re gone, and the team in Miami is who the Tar Heels are, and that's fine because plenty of talent remains. It will help if the cord is entirely cut to the former Heels, and by all accounts, it appears the team has done that.
If A&M strikes early and then again, however, how quickly does Carolina settle down and who makes the play or plays to make that happen? Chazz Surratt and Michael Carter were loud and respected voices, so next year’s leaders need to emerge Saturday night. And, if the Aggies don’t jump out to an early lead, there will be moments when this group’s core must get them through a stretch or more.
The 2021 Tar Heels will begin their process Saturday in many respects, especially if times get tough. In some ways, that might be the most interesting story behind the curtain in this game.