North Carolina returns to action Saturday night as the Tar Heels travel to No. 9 Virginia for a 6 pm tip at John Paul Jones Arena.
This will be UNC’s fourth consecutive road game, as Monday’s matchup with Miami was postponed. UNC has only played twice since a Jan. 26 win at Pittsburgh, but overall, the Tar Heels have won seven of their last nine and are coming off a 91-87 win at Duke last Saturday night.
The Cavaliers have won three straight games and have lost just once since getting blown out by Gonzaga on Dec. 26 several days after returning from a COVID pause.
UNC is 12-6 overall and 7-4 in the ACC while UVA is 14-3 and 10-1.
Here are 5 Keys for UNC to defeat Virginia:
Minimize Jay Huff's Effectiveness
UVA big man Jay Huff has been terrific all season producing and doing things that don’t show up in box scores. At 7-foot-1, Huff is outstanding around the rim, a reason he’s shooting 62.7 percent from the floor. He finishes well, doesn’t force stuff and is effective moving the ball that helps make things happen a pass or two away. And, Huff is comfortable stepping outside, as he’s hitting 46 percent from beyond the arc, having converted 23 of 50 attempts. In addition, Huff blocks 2.4 shots per game and alters quite a few more.
He is a very difficult matchup and could cause real problems for the Tar Heels. How they opt to deal with him will be interesting and could be a huge factor in the game’s outcome.
The Hoos From Three
Virginia can shoot the three, which has typically been the case in the Tony Bennett era, except for last season. The Wahoos are No. 8 in the nation shooting 39.5 percent from outside, which is what their 2019 national championship team shot. And what makes Virginia so difficult to defend on the perimeter is that its top three shooters from out there are the starters at the three, four and five positions.
Small forward, or big guard depending on how one looks at it, Trey Murphy is 37-for-77 (48.1 percent), four-man Sam Hauser is 39-for-92 (42.4 percent) and Huff, as noted above, have presented problems for every ACC opponent this season. Combined, they are 99-for-219 (45.2 percent), and per-game they average converting 5.8 on 12.8 attempts.
It isn’t just that the trio shoots so well from three-point range, so much of what UVA runs comes off that constant threat. The Tar Heels must limit UVA’s effectiveness outside to have a chance at earning a victory.
Scoring Against The Pack Line D
The Tar Heels have not reached the 50-point mark on their last three trips to Charlottesville, which included the 43 points scored by the 2017 national title team five weeks before it cut down the nets. In fact, UNC has lost six straight times at JPJ, and over its last seven trips has averaged only 54.2 points, a period that dates back to 2012.
Moreover, Carolina hasn’t reached the 70-point mark against UVA in its last eight meetings and on only three of its last 15 games versus the Hoos. So how might the current Heels break 50 and have a chance at approaching 70, which is what it likely will take to earn a victory?
Virginia loves to double the post in its pack line defense, but UNC can counter that playing two natural bigs pulling one high. UNC’s big men are effective passers, especially senior Garrison Brooks, and have been more so over the last month. The high-low game has worked well at times for UNC, and it must Saturday. Getting Jay Huff in foul trouble, crashing the boards and dominating on the offensive glass are other ways to counter the Hoos’ stingy defensive approach.
The other thing is to hit threes, which UNC hasn’t done with much consistency this year.
Love Versus Clarke
Saturday’s matchup for Caleb Love might be the most interesting one he has faced all season. Virginia junior Kihei Clarke has such a handle on the Wahoos it is impressive to watch him run their stuff even if he’s not scoring, which he doesn’t do all the time.
Clarke, who started and played 33 minutes in the national title game in 2019 and averages 10 points and 4.6 assists per game this season, can control a game even if he’s having an off shooting night. He makes defenses move, thus, he forces opposing point guards to defend against any lapses, because Clarke will take advantage of them. At 5-foor-9 and cat quick, he presents a huge challenge to Love, who is 6-foot-4 and still searching for consistency.
Love can present some issues for Clarke, too. His length can be an asset, plus he is learning to drive more effectively than earlier in the season, and if he can’t get to the rim can certainly shoot over Clarke. Carolina’s ability to score against that pack line defense is vitally important, but if there’s a matchup that could tip the scales in a close game it’s this one.
Keep UVA Off The Line
Virginia doesn’t shoot a lot of free throws, but the Cavs make most of the ones they do attempt. UVA is No. 2 in the nation hitting 81.7 percent from the stripe, with the lowest accuracy of any starter 75.9 percent by freshman guard Reece Beekman. The thing is, the Hoos are only attempting just 11.2 per game compared to 22.1 the Tar Heels average.
Carolina has made 262 free throws and its opponents have attempted only 284, so it has done a nice job getting back toward a figure that was once an annual thing, making more than opponents attempt. It must continue that trend Saturday. There is no need to waste a quality effort on both ends of the floor only to lose by allowing UVA to be out of character going to the line a lot. The game could be lost there if the Heels are too undisciplined and foul too often.