AJ: Fair Approach Is To Judge UNC Against Its Peer Programs

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North Carolina’s game last weekend versus Notre Dame was fairly dubbed a “barometer game” in this space, and it was.

Taking note of the Tar Heels’ performance, we learned Mack Brown’s program is too far from the Fighting Irish and like programs, so there’s no point in judging UNC in such a high rent district.

It’s foolish to appraise UNC in Notre Dame’s ritzy neighborhood. The Heels don’t have the capital. Not yet. Carolina’s football neighborhood is on the othwe side of town. Nice, safe, clean neighborhood, but the Irish are on mansion avenue.

So instead, moving forward, the fair way to gauge the Tar Heels and growth of the program in Mack Part II is against peer programs, so that’s what we’ll do.

The last eight games of the season are all ACC contests and against teams UNC is capable of beating, given it improves on each level of its defense and runs the ball more effectively on early downs. Four games in, the staff has plenty of intel of where its many problems reside.

The Tar Heels are 3-1, which they have been quick to point out since falling 45-32 to the Irish last Saturday, but it’s a sketchy 3-1. Yet, none of that really matters right now. Every single wart marking this team has been exposed, and they haven’t run from it. So, what gets fixed over the next eight games will more reflect where the program is than what has transpired through the first four outings.

So, with Virginia Tech on tap for Saturday at Kenan Stadium, wild weather and all, a thorough look at Carolina truly begins now.

Where is Brown’s program? Are the defensive issues greater than just pushing out Jay Bateman and bringing in Gene Chizik? Is the culture within the Kenan Football Center as strong as it appeared not too long ago? Does the defense need some psychological healing, in which a quality lock-down effort can fix?

Are the players on defense being developed at an appropriate rate? Fair question given the performance plateaus of some noteworthy, highly recruited players who had NFL aspirations when they arrived. And this goes for each level of the defense.

UNC went from Bateman’s uber-complex hybrid-heavy scheme to Chizik’s simpler bend-but-don’t-break approach, only that the Heels have broken many times this season. UNC has allowed its opponents 65 plays that gained 10 or more yards, 37 have gone for 15 or more, and 16 for 20 or more.

In five different quarters, opponents have racked up at least 10 first downs, with Appalachian State getting 18 in one, and Notre Dame twice picking up 13 in a period.

Yet, it should also be understood the guys are reeling a bit, understandably so. Human nature dictates so much in sports, and the players feel it. They are frustrated and trying to deal with that and the expectations of them as individuals and the unit/team as a whole. That isn't always easy for dudes their ages.

Offensively, Drake Maye has been sensational and the receivers have done their jobs. Flare ups in the ground game have masked a greater issue in lack of consistency, especially running on first and second downs. In UNC’s 112 running plays on first and second downs, 64 have gone for three yards or less.

While the competition across the board increases for the remainder of the season, they are against programs in which UNC should be judged. After Virginia Tech, Carolina heads to Miami and Duke, is off for a week before hosting Pittsburgh, a trip to Virginia followed by one to Wake Forest, back home against Georgia Tech, before NC State closes out the regular season in Chapel Hill the day after Thanksgiving.

The back half of the slate if more difficult than what’s up the next few weeks. So, the Heels have an opportunity to fix the issues Brown, Chizik and offensive coordinator Phil Longo have identified, and be better situated to take on some of the better clubs in the ACC.

Regardless, none of them are named Clemson, so the fairest way to judge the program in year four of Mack Part II is over the next couple of months. Brown said Saturday now isn’t the time for full-on judgement, anyway.

“You can't start talking about trends after the fourth game,” he said. “Let's talk about it after game 12 and see if we've made progress.”

Fair enough, and it makes a whole lotta sense. So, the next eight contests will truly be a collection of barometer games.