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AJ: Huge Week Ahead

Roy WIlliams' team has two very winnable games this week it cannot afford to lose to maintain track for the NCAAs.
Roy WIlliams' team has two very winnable games this week it cannot afford to lose to maintain track for the NCAAs. (ACC Media)

Take a peek at North Carolina’s schedule over the next few weeks, and it makes games this Wednesday and Saturday versus Wake Forest and NC State, respectively, crucial if the Tar Heels are going to make a strong push for the NCAA Tournament, and perhaps a decent seed.

And it’s not too early to talk about this.

The Tar Heels' NET rating is 51, so they're in the conversation as it is, and with 13 scheduled ACC games left, 14 if and when they make up the postponed home game versus Clemson, opportunities abound to significantly enhance their resume. Currently at 8-5 overall and 3-3 in league play, Carolina cannot afford to lose games in which it’s favored, and the Heels should beat the Demon Deacons and Wolfpack this week at the Dean Dome.

Glance at the stretch they play afterward, and those two contests versus in-state rivals are almost must-win games.

Say the Heels win both and this time next week are 10-5 and 5-3, the gauntlet awaiting them could determine their NCAA worthiness: At surging Pittsburgh on Jan. 26; at nationally ranked Clemson Feb. 2; at Duke on Feb. 6; home versus a Miami team that could be healthy (and dangerous) on Feb. 8; at Virginia on Feb. 13; home versus ranked Virginia Tech on Feb. 16; and home versus Louisville on Feb. 20.

That’s a rough stretch, even in a down ACC. It’s not exactly like the Tar Heels have been walloping people, so any game is losable for the foreseeable future, and taking on the best teams in the conference in a deep swoop like that will test every aspect of this squad.

The Heels get another crack at NC State this weekend, and it's borderline a must-win game.
The Heels get another crack at NC State this weekend, and it's borderline a must-win game. (ACC Media)
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Are they ready? Perhaps, at least if trends are your thing, because Carolina is getting better.

Wake is very much in the rebuilding phase, so that shouldn’t be an issue. Of course, “shouldn’t” is the operative word. State is not a bad club at all, as the Heels learned last month, but the Wolfpack is predictably unpredictable. That’s seemingly always the case in Raleigh.

State will be ready to play, but so will the Tar Heels, and they should win that game.

Now, how prepared Carolina is for that seven-game stretch may hinge on its growth over the next five days. And given recent weeks, it’s safe to assume the Heels will indeed take a few more steps forward, perhaps even considerably so now that Anthony Harris is back and Roy Williams has a full roster at his disposal.

If Harris gives the Tar Heels something like what he did at Florida State on Saturday, but with more minutes logged – five points, three assists in nine minutes – that alone makes Carolina a better club. RJ Davis appears to have found his stroke again and has played with his head up a lot the last two games.

Caleb Love is having a moment here and there that depict growth, but the team needs more if the Heels are going to successfully navigate the coming stretch. The light isn’t going to simply go on for Love, this is more a process. If you look closely, however, the improvement is recognizable. The Heels just need more from the freshman.

Love and the Heels have a chance to gain some momentum going into a very challenging stretch.
Love and the Heels have a chance to gain some momentum going into a very challenging stretch. (Iowa Athletics)

Kerwin Walton is comfortable in his role, the bigs usually outplay their counterparts, though that wasn’t the case in Tallahassee, further exemplifying the obvious importance of UNC flexing its interior muscles each time it steps onto the court. Gotta play to their strengths, so the Tar Heels must get B-plus-and-above games from their bigs each night out.

Individually, one can see a scenario how the Tar Heels emerge with wins in each of those coming games, but collectively, there’s no way that’s happening.

But that’s okay, nobody is expecting that, but they rightfully anticipate growth, and if the perimeter guys mesh more cohesively with the interior, the Tar Heels should win a few of those games.

Even going 3-4 would put them at 13-9 overall and 8-7 in the ACC entering the home stretch of the regular season. And with the NCAA selection committee revealing it will judge teams on a curve this season, toss out the old idea of what looks like a minimal NCAA at-large record and what doesn’t. In 2021, 13-9 and 8-7 with a few more winnable games remaining would put Carolina in prime position to earn a spot in the big dance.

It’s only mid-January, but it’s not too early to begin looking at the Heels’ NCAA worthiness or to suggest this is an extremely important week coming up.


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