AJ: Now is the Time For Brown to Change Course

CHARLOTTE – Bowl games these days should never be referendums about football programs, or even teams. The roster chaos makes it a bit unfair and unwise to take such a long, deep look at a team’s performance in these games leading to proclamations of any kind.

Yet, they are games played, they are actions of preparation, and sometimes they reflect what we have already seen since September. So, to counter the above truth, it is fair to connect dots from the regular season to a bowl game.

Especially in North Carolina’s case.

In fact, we can connect the close to this season to how the Tar Heels finished the 2022 campaign. And if you want to get really gory, let’s add the last part of the 2021 season to the list as well. Not to poke at Mack Brown and his program, and not in an attempt to find needles in a massive haystack.

The information is right there in front of us. And tonight’s 30-10 loss to West Virginia in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl is just the most recent example that UNC’s program needs a juice injection.

Not calling for anyone’s head here. But some things need to change. Brown has done such a good job at building most of the infrastructure to a palatable Power 5 level. He can lure talent, is usually an outstanding communicator, runs a clean program, and has his finger on the pulse of his sport.

But he hasn’t been able to fix two glaring issues that have derailed the last two seasons, and also sapped some of the enthusiasm from a fan base that has sold out almost every home game since he returned five years ago.

UNC fans do care about football, they’ve shown that for the most part over the last five seasons. But that about 95 percent of the crowd tonight were West Virginia fans is an embarrassment to Carolina football. Yet, who can blame the fans?

“It is what it is,” Brown replied when asked about the fan turnout here.

They feel disillusioned, and understandably so. Think about it, and this is where the dots absolutely connect:

Carolina closed the 2021 season losing its last three games versus Power 5 teams in overtime at Pittsburgh, melting down at NC State, and getting blown out by South Carolina in this same bowl game. UNC finished Sam Howell’s final campaign 6-7.

Last season, the Tar Heels dropped their last four games after a 9-1 start, including at home to Georgia Tech and its third-string quarterback, and at home to NC State and its third-team quarterback.

And now, the Heels have lost their last three games by a combined 50 points, which includes another loss to the Wolfpack. Overall, Carolina closed this season dropping five of its last seven contests, but one of the wins was over FCS member Campbell, so let’s toss that one out.

UNC lost five of its last six games versus P5 opponents, and the one win was in overtime at home over a Duke team that started a third-string true freshman QB, and the Heels needed a Herculean performance by Drake Maye to get that win.

One more stat: Since the Heels won the Coastal Division with a win at Wake Forest last season improving to 9-1, they are 8-9. Eight And Nine! They are 6-9 versus P5 opponents!

Allow that to sink in for a moment.

Now, Brown is right when he points out eight wins this year, nine wins last season, and 17 in two years as something that does not happen very often in Chapel Hill. He is one trillion percent correct.

But that is not his personal bar, no way, nor should it be for this program. He said upon his return five years ago the mission was to restore things to where they were when he left in 1997. That hasn’t happened. And even though the Heels have been ranked in the top 10 at some point in three of his five seasons, and as high as No. 13 in another, UNC isn’t close to meeting that mandate.

The 1996 and 1997 teams were ferocious, tough-running, defensive-swarming teams. Those two clubs may have boasted the best defenses in the nation, something the NFL Draft agreed with.

Now, with Brown saying he will fully evaluate everything in the program, focusing mostly on defense, he is tasked with making some hard decisions. Keep and tweak, terminate and change, or the status quo?

There’s more, to be sure. Falling apart last in three straight seasons doesn’t reflect just a defensive problem. It’s bigger than that.

Now, Brown must find ways to change course once and for all.