Okay, let’s look at North Carolina’s last six games and how the Tar Heels may fare by the time Mack Brown’s first season of his second term in Chapel Hill is completed. At least that’s regular season, because it’s very likely the Tar Heels will be in a bowl, as Brown promised his seniors last winter.
In looking at the remaining six games and UNC’s chances at winning the ACC Coastal Division and meeting Clemson in the conference championship game, one must first take into consideration that as soon as something makes sense in the Coastal it quickly doesn’t.
Virginia was the heavy favorite to win the division, but the Cavaliers have struggled the last few weeks and Friday night didn’t score a touchdown in losing at Miami, which had been pretty bad to that point.
One might say the Cavs are still the favorite, but having to visit UNC and Louisville, which might be the biggest surprise in the league, will be difficult games for the Wahoos.
Duke has a chance, too. The Blue Devils are 4-2 (2-1 ACC) but have the toughest schedule remaining of the Coastal teams in contention. Duke’s next two games are at UVA and UNC plus there’s a trip to Wake Forest and home games with Syracuse and Miami.
Pittsburgh might also be in the mix, but it’s hard to tell given the Panthers clearly play to the level of their competition. How else do you explain a narrow loss at Penn State and win over UCF while barely beating Ohio U and FCS member Delaware? But the Panthers have the most favorable schedule left, with trips to Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech plus home games against Miami, UNC and Boston College. At 1-1, Pitt’s league loss was at home to UVA.
So, lets look at Carolina’s remaining slate:
Oct. 19, @ Virginia Tech – The Hokies really haven't played well yet this season. They are 4-2 (1-2 ACC) but they’re wins have all been ugly: 31-17 over ODU; 24-17 over Furman; 42-35 at Miami (five Hurricanes’ turnovers); and Saturday’s 34-17 win over Rhode Island, a 1-5 FCS team, and it was a one-TD game in the fourth qarter. Tech has two wins over FCS teams, in fact.
The Tar Heels are better, but the Hokies manage to get up for UNC and this will be billed as a huge game up there, so expect a large and loud crowd and a challenge for the Heels. Carolina should prevail, though.
Oct. 26 – Duke – The Blue Devils will bring their hard hats and some trickery to Kenan Stadium and give the Heels everything they have. It’s what David Cutcliffe-led Duke does with UNC. Carolina might be the better team, but maybe not by much, and this is a very losable game, so minimizing mistakes will be huge.
Nov. 2 – Virginia – The Cavaliers will win the Coastal if they win in Chapel Hill. They are the best team in the division, but it doesn’t appear the gap between them and the next best club (UNC? Duke? Pitt?) is as great as it was a few weeks ago. The most fascinating thing about this game will be how Jay Bateman schemes for Wahoos’ quarterback Bryce Perkins. No reason the Heels can’t win this one.
Nov. 14 - @ Pittsburgh (Thursday night) – For some reason, ESPN thinks UNC at Pitt on Thursday night every other year makes for good TV, so the Heels and Panthers will do it again for the third straight time at Heinz Field. UNC has not lost to Pitt with both teams as ACC members, but each win has been by a TD or less. The odds are Pitt will eventually break through and this year’s Pitt team at home with a ton to play for may get it done. Yet, if the Heels win out between now and then, they will have perhaps even more to play for that night.
Nov. 23 – Mercer – The FCS Bears will visit and not pose much of a challenge.
Nov. 30 - @ N.C. State – It’s hard to tell if State is any good, and like most of the ACC, the Wolfpack maybe an average team at best. That’s kind of where the Heels are, too, but Carolina might be trending the right way more than State if for no other reason the Tar Heels are much better situated at QB. So, by the time these teams meet, if State hasn’t figured out things at QB, the Heels should clearly be a better team. Winning at Carter-Finley won’t be easy, though, especially if the Pack can keep the Heels from winning the Coastal, and it very well could come down to that weekend.
THI’s Take: In no way are we projecting the Tar Heels to win the Coastal Division, but we do think it’s realistic and can see it happening. The Heels need to avoid any more major injuries, especially in the secondary, the OL has to keep progressing, and the defense must get to where it’s creating turnovers every week. UNC can play for the ACC championship, though we aren’t projecting it as of now.