Six of North Carolina’s eight losses have been in games in which the Tar Heels either led or were one point behind entering or inside the final five minutes of those contests.
These are games in which a team that rises up, grabs a key rebound, gets a crucial defensive stop, and a playmaker makes an offensive play leaves with a narrow win.
Yet, in the six noted games the Tar Heels lost, they not only didn’t make those plays, but they essentially were dominated to close out the contests. The one exception might be Tuesday’s loss at Wake Forest when a late UNC push was too little too light because of the ugly stretch that gave the Demon Deacons enough cushion to hold on.
What we will do below is itemize each of the six games and then combined them to reveal just how much UNC has been outplayed in each and every one of these games.
It should be noted the Tar Heels have won three similar games over UCLA, Notre Dame, and NC State.
Also note that we are limiting the number crunching to scoring run, shooting from the field for both teams, rebounding, and opponents’ second chance points.
Here are the six games of note:
Wake Forest 67, UNC 66
The Tar Heels led 54-53 with 5:21 remaining, but over the next 4:04, Wake went on a 12-2 run to take a 65-56 lead with 1:17 remaining. The game was essentially over, and the final one-point margin was helped by an RJ Davis 3 at the buzzer.
*Wake shot 4-for-6 in the 4:04 span
*UNC shot 1-for-5 in that span
*Wake outrebounded UNC 6-0
*Wake scored 5 second chance points on 2 offensive rebounds
Stanford 72, UNC 71
The Tar Heels led 66-61 with 4:23 remaining, but the Cardinal closed out the Heels 11-5 for the win.
*Stanford was 3-for-7 from the floor
*UNC was 1-for-5 from the floor
*UNC outrebounded Stanford 5-4
Louisville 83, UNC 70
The Tar Heels trailed just 70-69 with 5:02 remaining but were outscored 13-1 to close out the game and lose by 13 points.
*Louisville shot 2-for-4 from the field
*UNC shot 0-for-4 from the field
*Louisville outrebounded UNC 6-0
*Louisville has 2 offensive rebounds leading to 5 second chance points
Florida 90, UNC 84
The Tar Heels lead the Gators 81-77 with 4:03 remaining, but Florida closed on a 13-3 run to earn the victory.
*Florida shot 2-for-7 from the floor
*UNC shot 1-for-3 from the floor
*Florida outrebounded the Heels 8-2
*Florida turned 4 offensive rebounds into 8 second chance points
Michigan State 94, UNC 90
Carolina led the Spartans 87-86 with 2:44 left in overtime but MSU closed outscoring the Heels 8-4.
*Mich State shot 2-for-3
*UNC shot 1-for-6
*Mich State outrebounded the Heels 6-4
Kansas 92, UNC 89
The Tar Heels led 87-83 with 3:28 remaining but the Jayhawks closed on a 9-2 run to win the game.
*Kansas was 3-for-4 from the field
*UNC was 1-for-5 from the field
*Kansas outrebounded UNC 4-2
COMBINED
The six stretches noted above consumed 23:44 from the game clock.
*The opponents outscored UNC 66-17
*Opponents shot 16-for-31 (51.6%)
*UNC shot 5-for-28 (17.9%)
*Opponents outrebounded the Heels 35-13
*Opponents turned 10 offensive rebounds in to 18 second chance points
IN CLOSING:
No disputing it, these numbers are ugly and speak about a team that does not handle pressure situations well. Some Tar Heels have said they struggle matching opponents’ intensity when it’s dialed up in late games. Some have said they don’t communicate or even trust each other enough in those situations.
The bottom line is prepared teams schooled on dealing with crunch time don’t struggle to the degree the Tar Heels have in close games.
