Just three games remain in the regular season for North Carolina, so it’s time to again look at the Tar Heels’ NCAA Tournament resume to get an idea of how close they are to seriously contending for one of the four No. 1 seeds the selection committee will award.
The NCAA Selection Committee will reveal the 68-team field on March 17, which is in 18 days.
One change from previous years is that the selection committee will no longer use the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) as a base to evaluate teams’ resumes. The committee will now use the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), which grinds up game results, location of games, margins with a cap on 10 points, quality of the wins and losses, strength of schedule and offensive and defensive efficiency rankings.
We’ve put together the complete list of UNC's opponents, their current NET rankings and then a snap shot of the other contenders' ersumes.
Note: UNC is 23-5 overall and 13-2 in the ACC and its NET ranking is No. 8.
Still To Play
43-Clemson
127-Boston College
3-Duke
Already Played:
1-Gonzaga
2-Virginia
3-Duke
5-Kentucky
9-Michigan
11-Virginia Tech
20-Wofford
21-Louisville
26-Florida State
30-N.C. State
37-Texas
44-Syacuse
67-Davidson
89-Miami
102-Stanford
103-Notre Dame
107-Pittsburgh
108-UCLA
124-Harvard
128-Georgia Tech
189-Wake Forest
258-St. Francis (PA)
263-UNC-Wilmington
294-Elon
335-Tennessee Tech
UNC's NCAA Resume
Quad 1
*Home games versus NET Top 30 teams, Neutral versus Top 50 teams and Road games versus Top 75 teams
UNC’s record: 8-5
Quad 2
*Home games versus 31-75, Neutral site games versus 51-100, Road games versus 76-135
UNC’s record: 5-0
Quad 3
*Home games versus 76-160, Neutral site games versus 101-200, Road games versus 136-240
UNC’s record: 6-0
Quad 4
*Home games versus 161-351, Neutral games versus 201-351, Road games versus 241-351
UNC’s record: 4-0
Note: UNC is 3-3 versus the top 11 teams and 5-4 versus the top 21.
The Other Contenders
Gonzaga (27-2, 14-0 WCC, NET No. 1)
Q1 Record: 4-2
Q2 Record: 6-0
*Last 2 games: At Pacific, at St. Mary’s
Houston (27-1, 14-1 AAC, NET No. 4)
Q1 Record: 4-1
Q2 Record: 11-0
*Last 3 games: Home vs. UCF and SMU, at Cincinnati
Virginia (25-2, 13-2 ACC, NET No. 2)
Q1 Record: 9-2
Q2 Record: 5-0
*Last 3 games: Home vs. Pitt and Louisville and at Syracuse
Duke (24-4, 12-3 ACC, NET No. 3)
Q1 Record: 9-3
Q2 Record: 6-1
*Last 3 games: Home vs. Miami and Wake Forest, at UNC
Kentucky (24-4, 13-2 SEC, NET No. 5)
Q1 Record: 8-3
Q2 Record: 5-1
*Last 3 games: at Tennessee, at Ole Miss and home vs. Florida
Tennessee (25-3, 13-2 SEC, NET No. 7)
Q1 Record: 6-3
Q2 Record: 7-0
*Last 3 games: home vs. Kentucky and Miss State and at Auburn
Michigan (24-4, 13-4 Big Ten, NET No. 9)
Q1 Record: 6-4
Q2 Record: 8-0
*Last 3 games: Home vs. Nebraska, at Maryland and at Michigan State
Michigan State (23-5, 14-3 Big Ten, NET No. 6)
Q1 Record: 10-3
Q2 Record: 4-2
*Last 3 games: at Indiana, home vs. Nebraska and Michigan
THI's Take:
Yes, there is a path for UNC to get one of the four No. 1 seeds, but the Tar Heels are going to have to win out in the regular season and at least win a game in the ACC Tournament. In addition, they will need some help from a few other schools losing perhaps twice more. Given some of their schedules and with league tournaments coming up, it’s entirely possible.