North Carolina’s struggles this season have been completely out of character and well documented. But even with a program-first six-game ACC losing streak, falling at home to Clemson for the first time ever and everything else that’s happened, are the Tar Heels still in contention for an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament?
On the surface, the quick and easy response is they aren’t. At 10-10 overall and 3-6 in a down year for the ACC, the Tar Heels appear to have dug too deep a hole with which to climb out. But, looking at the rest of the nation and the last teams included in this week’s ESPN Bracketology, there just might be a path for Roy Williams’ team to make a push toward inclusion.
One thing is absolute, though: The Tar Heels must win games, a lot of games, and then hope certain other clubs lose enough for UNC to leapfrog them in the NET rankings while bolstering its resume.
Quadrant Breakdown
The NCAA relies on its quadrant formula when grading teams.
Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quad 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quad 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
In UNC's Favor?
Currently, UNC is No. 93 in the NET, which is the computer model the NCAA selection committee uses when determining who is ultimately in and out of the field of 68. So, with that ranking, the Heels are far from the immediate conversation, but they do have a few things going for them:
*Carolina has three Quad 1 wins, which is more than eight of the last nine teams that made the most recent bracketology.
*UNC has six more regular season Q1 and three Q2 games remaining, so the Heels can build their NET ranking quite a bit over the final five weeks of the regular season.
*UNC has won its last two contests and appears to be trending in the right direction.
*The Tar Heels will get Cole Anthony back soon, and if they win games with him, the NCAA selection committee is likely to grade the Heels much more on the games Anthony plays in than not, and that Carolina picked up two Q1 wins (over Alabama and Oregon) before he was injured, suggests with Anthony they would have won at least several of the games they ended up losing.
Time To Compare
Following are UNC’s current NCAA resume along with the last nine teams that made ESPN’s most recent Bracketology:
Note: Team rankings are the NET as of Jan. 30.
UNC’s full resume:
Q1 record: 3-5
Q2 2-1
Q3 2-4
Q4 3-0
ACC NET rankings: 6 Duke; 10 Louisville; 18 FSU; 53 Virginia Tech; 54 Virginia; 57 N.C. State; 60 Syracuse; 68 Notre Dame; 76 Pittsburgh; 83 Clemson; 88 Georgia Tech 101 Miami; 114 Wake Forest; 159 Boston College.
UNC’s nonconference opponents: 3 Gonzaga; 15 Oregon; 19 Ohio State; 34 Michigan; 40 Alabama; 48 Yale; 120 UCLA; 135 Wofford; 273 Gardner-Webb; 298 UNCW; 312 Elon.
UNC has six more Q1 games and three more Q2 games based on current NET rankings.
No. 29 BYU (14-7)
Q1 – 1-5
Q2 – 3-2
Q3 – 5-0
Q4 – 5-0
*One more Q1 and one more Q2 game remaining.
No. 33 VCU (16-5)
Q1 – 1-3
Q2 – 1-2
Q3 – 7-0
Q4 – 7-0
*Four more Q1 and one more Q2 games remaining.
No. 37 Purdue (11-10)
Q1 – 2-8
Q2 – 3-1
Q3 – 2-1
Q4 – 4-0
*Seven more Q1 and two more Q2 games remaining.
No. 42 Florida (12-8)
Q1 – 2-4
Q2 – 3-4
Q3 – 3-0
Q4 – 4-0
*Four Q1 and four Q2 games remaining.
No. 44 Minnesota (11-9)
Q1 – 3-8
Q2 – 2-1
Q3 – 2-0
Q4 – 4-0
*Six more Q1 and two more Q2 games remaining.
No. 50 Oklahoma (13-7)
Q1 – 2-6
Q2 – 5-1
Q3 – 3-0
Q4 – 3-0
*Seven more Q1 and three more Q2 games remaining.
No. 51 Memphis (15-5)
Q1 – 1-3
Q2 – 4-1
Q3 – 4-1
Q4 – 6-0
*Three more Q1 and three more Q2 games remaining.
No. 57 – N.C. State (14-7)
Q1 – 2-2
Q2 – 3-3
Q3 – 3-2
Q4 – 6-0
*Five more Q1 and two more Q2 games remaining.
No. 65 Tulsa (14-6)
Q1 – 0-2
Q2 – 3-2
Q3 – 7-1
Q 4 – 4-1
*Two more Q1 and five more Q2 games remaining.
Note: Virginia Tech, Virginia and Syracuse were not included in the most recent bracketology.
THI's Take
UNC fans must root for Oregon, Alabama and Yale to keep winning games, but also root for Ohio State and Michigan to win enough for those games to remain in the Q1 grouping. In addition, the more games UNC’s opponents win the better for the Tar Heels. Also, Carolina has plenty of opportunities moving forward to position itself for a bid. As you can see with the last nine teams making the field this week, it’s not a strong group and some of those teams are either trending poorly or have few opportunities on their schedules to move up. This can be done, especially if Anthony makes a smooth return into the lineup.
