CHAPEL HILL – To match the late-season swoons of the last two years, North Carolina is going to have to stoop to a very low level seen in the program in only several sequences in its history.
In 2022, UNC started the season 9-1 and closed it at 9-5. Last fall, the Tar Heels were 6-0 before finishing 8-4. They were 3-0 a few weeks ago and are now 0-3, and suddenly wins are hard to find on a schedule that should be quite manageable.
Since the wins this season are Minnesota, a quality victory by every measure, and home wins over Charlotte and NC Central, with the Heels not playing well in either game, followed by three straight losses that have exposed the Tar Heels to be who they’ve been, at least on defense and special teams.
What this amounts to is Carolina is 1-6 in its last seven ACC games, and is 3-8 in its last 11 games against FBS teams. Unless the team and program slam on the breaks hard, this likely will continue through the final six contests of the season.
The home loss a year ago to struggling Virginia, which set off this ugly chain of reaction, as 350 days ago. That’s two weeks shy of a calendar year. And in that span, the Tar Heels have won ACC win, and it was a 47-45 double-overtime win at home over a Duke team that started a third-string true freshman quarterback.
Let’s take a deeper look:
*In UNC’s last seven ACC games, beginning with the home loss to UVA on Oct. 21 last season, the Tar Heels are 1-6 while allowing an average of 35.3 points per game. In the last four games of the stretch, UNC is averaging scoring just 21 points.
*In the last seven ACC games, UNC has usually struggled defensively in the fourth quarters, and here are the numbers: The Heels have allowed averages of 11.4 points, 138.6 total yards, and 82.4 rushing yards. Those one-quarter averages to a full game equal 45.6 points, 554.4 total yards, and 329.6 rushing yards.
*In the last 11 games against FBS teams, the Tar Heels’ defensive averages are 10.0 points, 112.1 total yards, and 66.6 rushing yards. Those four-quarter averages are 40.0 points, 448.4 total yards, 266.4 rushing yards.
*UNC had a total of 29 missed tackles in its first four games, but 36 in its last two. The average on the season is 10.8 per game. By comparison, the Tar Heels averaged 9.6 missed tackles per game last season. In 2022, the average was 9.8, it was 10.2 in 2021, it was 11.5 in 2020, and it was 11.5 in 2019.
*For context, Larry Fedora’s team averaged 7.3 missed tackles in 2018 and 10.9 in injury riddled 2017.
*In addition, 535 of its opponents’ 839 rushing yards this season have come after contact.
*The last three opponents have combined to rush for an average of 193.3 yards per game. Currently, the No. 115 rushing defense in the nation allows an average of 191.6 yards per contest.
*Carolina’s current NCAA defensive rankings:
-No. 93 in total defense
-No. 52 in rushing defense
-No. 112 in passing yards allowed
-No. 101 in pass defense efficiency
-No. 96 in scoring defense
-No. 36 in 3rd-down defense
-No. 121 in 4th-down defense
-No. 102 in red zone defense
-No. 101 in first downs allowed
-No. 66 in TFLs
-No. 31 in sacks
-No. 75 in turnovers gained
*According to PFF, here are UNC’s defensive rankings:
-No. 97 in overall defense
-No. 48 in rushing defense
-No. 67 in tackling
-No. 74 in pass rush
-No. 105 in pass coverage
*Not defense, but much of this happens on that side of the ball UNC is ranked No. 129 in fewest penalties and No. 108 in fewest penalty yards.
