Sometime on Sunday evening North Carolina will know its fate. Will it be in the NCAA Tournament, or will this proud, fabled program miss out for the second time in three seasons?

Sitting on the bubble was once a foreign experience for UNC fans, but now it’s become commonplace. Tar Heel fans know the NET and Quad formulas as well as any base, which isn’t anything to boast about.

But that’s where things stand in a program that hasn’t really lived up to its standard but one season since 2019.

The 2022 campaign closed with the Heels leading by 15 points at halftime of the national championship game, but remember, that was a middling team until the final five weeks of the season.

The sentiment the committee won’t keep out a 22-win Carolina club is flawed. It left out a 20-win UNC team two years ago and it had two fewer losses. UNC is 22-13 and doesn’t have much to point to on its resume.

Most Carolina fans know the numbers by heart: 1-12 in Quad 1 games; 8-0 in Q2 games, 7-1 in Q3 games, and 6-0 in Q4 contests. UNC is also No. 36 in the NET.

Let’s look at why UNC might and why it might not get into the big dance.

*UNC has played six games against teams in the top 6 of the NET rankings and 11 against teams in the top 26 of the NET rankings. While UNC is 1-10 in those games, some of the teams it’s competing with on the bubble faced lower-rated Q1 opponents.

*UNC’s non-conference schedule included games against No. 2 Auburn on a neutral site, No. 4 Florida on a neutral site, No. 5 Alabama at home, No. 11 Michigan State on a neutral site, at No. 20 Kansas, and No. 26 UCLA on a neutral site. That’s five of six Q1 non-ACC games away from Chapel Hill.

*In addition, UNC’s ACC Q1 games also included only one game in Chapel Hill, which was Duke. The others were true road affairs (Louisville, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson) or on a neutral court (Duke).

*So, of UNC’s 13 Quad 1 games, 11 have been away from Chapel Hill.

*The Tar Heels are 21-1 against teams perceived below them, meaning they were only truly upset once, and that was by a 19-win Stanford team that is No. 81 in the NET. So even at Carolina’s worst, it didn’t exactly lose to a dreg.

*The Heels closed the season winning eight of their last 10 games by an average of 17 points. Its two losses in that span were to the No. 1 team in the nation and Carolina led by 7 in the second half in one of the contests and used a 43-20 run to cut a 24-point deficit to 1 point in the second half of the other.

*The average NET ranking of opponents in UNC’s 13 losses is 23.2.

Note: Lowest NET rated teams to beat the bubble competitors (if lower than Stanford’s 81)

---Boise State: No. 111 Washington State; No. 204 Boston College

---San Diego State: No. 98 UNLV twice

---Xavier: None but it has seven losses to teams outside the top 50 (UNC has 3)

---Vanderbilt: None

---Texas: None

---Indiana: None

Those same teams’ records in Q2-4 games: Boise State 20-4; San Diego State 17-3; Xavier 20-2; Vanderbilt 15-3; Texas 12-5; Indiana 15-0.

*Carolina has only two wins over teams that will play in the NCAA Tournament: No. 26 UCLA and No. 226 American.

*Carolina’s record against teams that will play in the NCAA Tournament is 2-10.

*UNC has three losses to teams that are not under consideration for the NCAA Tournament.

*UNC’s record against ACC teams that will play in the NCAA Tournament is 0-5.

*Carolina is 2-7 against ACC teams with winning league records.

*The Tar Heels are 0-8 against teams in the top 20 of the NET.

*The Heels are 1-10 against clubs in the top 40 of the NET.

*The average NET ranking of UNC’s 22 victims is 134.9.

*Carolina is 1-12 in Quad 1 games, and six of those Q1 losses were by 13 or more points. The average margin of UNC’s 12 Q1 defeats is 9.3 points.

*The five highest-rated teams UNC beat: No. 26 UCLA; No. 46 SMU; No. 62 Pitt; No. 68 Wake; No. 90 FSU.

*UNC has one-possession wins over No. 62 Pitt; No. 103 Notre Dame; No. 132 NC State; and went to OT at home against No. 204 BC.

The Tar Heels have been fortunate no bid stealers have emerged in any conferences, though keep an eye out for UAB-Memphis and George Mason-VCU on Sunday. But the committee must embrace the eye test of late to nudge the Heels into one of the 68 spots.

The 1-12 in Q1 games stands out too much. And yes, the Heels played mostly big-time teams in those games, but they also lost three games to teams rated No. 62 or lower with two of them Q1 losses. The six Q1 losses by 13 points and then not taking advantage of Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown being out for Duke won’t help.

As of this moment from a purely basketball standpoint, North Carolina is one of the top 20-25 teams in the nation and can beat probably all but a couple of clubs. But the resume won’t change. And that AD Bubba Cunningham is head of the selection committee, any notion of giving Carolina an unfair edge will be taken under advisement.

The projection here is UNC does not make the field but will be one of the top four teams left out.