Tar Heels Can't Make Sense Of The Drought

CHAPEL HILL – Perhaps the anomaly of all anomalies has afflicted the UNC football team this season, and nobody has an explanation as to why.

Numbers don’t lie, and this statistic is mindboggling: Out of 664 schools playing NCAA football at the FBS, FCS, Division II and Division II level, North Carolina, which has played 10 games, is the only one without an interception.

The next closest school is FCS member Delaware State, with just one. In FBS, Texas State, Fresno State and Florida International each have 3 interceptions. Among Power 5 schools, only two others have fewer than 6: Vanderbilt has 5 and Texas Tech has 4.

“I can’t make sense of it, I’ll let y’all (media) make sense of it, I can’t,” UNC coach Larry Fedora said. “And at this point, I don’t even dwell on it anymore, it’s either going to happen or it’s not, that’s all I can say about it.

“We’ve gotten our hands on balls and we haven’t brought them in. It’s not like we don’t practice it, I can tell you that.”

Not since Domiquie Green picked off Baylor’s Chris Johnson with 8:23 left in the third quarter of UNC’s loss to the Bears in the Russell Athletic Bowl last December, has a Tar Heel registered an interception.

That’s a span of 282 pass attempts, 278 coming this season.

The goose egg became somewhat of a topic in interviews with players and coaches after four games and by the sixth game it was clear the staff wasn’t interested in talking about it any longer. Though, they did expect the picks to come, perhaps in droves. It does tend to be a random thing that occurs during games, and that wave was expected.

But it hasn’t happened, and now the staff doesn’t even discuss it among themselves. What else could they say that hasn’t already been bandied about, and then some?

“It used to,” Fedora said about the staff discussing the lack of interceptions. “Now, it’s gotten so old and tiresome we don’t even bring it up.”

The players do, however. At least among themselves.

“We do a lot,” junior safety Donnie Miles said. “We talk about it every game, betting on who’s going to get the first one. It kind of hurts that we don’t have one, we’re trying to make plays on the ball so that we can get one.”

It’s difficult to draw a distinct correlation between any of UNC’s three losses and the lack of interceptions, though the first place to look is the difference in time of possession in UNC’s games this season versus last year, when the Tar Heels led the ACC with 17 picks.

Through 10 games, Carolina’s opponents own a 35:18 to 24:42 advantage in average time of possession with UNC forcing just 9 total turnovers, all of which, of course, have been fumbles.

Last season, it was 34:44 to 25:16, a separation of just 34 seconds per game, but the greater difference was the defense forced 26 turnovers. Now, that's in 14 games versus 10 this year, last year's team averaged forcing 1.86 turnovers per game while this year's averages forcing .9. A difference of one a game with this offense is a big difference and likely would have raised the Heels’ chances of beating Duke last week and the timing of another forced turnover versus Georgia could have been the difference in that game, too.

Perhaps, but this requires a deeper examination.

Peeling away a few layers at Carolina’s touchdown drives the last two seasons may offer some perspective:

*Last season, the Tar Heels averaged 61.6 yards on their 71 touchdown drives, this season they are averaging 70.2 on 40 touchdown drives.

*A year ago, they had 19 touchdown drives of 49 yards or less, including 7 between 40-49 yards, 5 between 30-39, 3 between 20-29, and 2 each between 10-19 and 0-9 yards. This season, however, Carolina has just 4 touchdown drives under 49 yards, and they’ve gone for 45, 44, 29 and 19 yards.

The anomaly doesn’t end versus the field nationally, it’s quite uncharacteristic for Fedora-coached teams. This is his ninth year heading a program, the first four coming at Southern Mississippi and the last five at UNC. So, what was the previous low for one of his clubs?

“I don’t, I don’t, I’ll let y’all look that up,” he said.

The number is 12 shared by his 2009 Southern Miss team and the 2014 Tar Heels.

His USM totals were 2008 (17), 2009 (12), 2010 (17) and 2011 (19), and at UNC they’ve been 2012 (16), 2013 (13), 2014 (12), 2015 (17) and 2016 (0).

The current players don’t know or care about those numbers, but they do know zero. They know it all too well, but say it’s not a factor once they strap on their helmets and get onto the field.

“You don’t really think about it in the game, you just play,” junior cornerback MJ. Stewart said. “Our main job is to not let the receiver catch the ball.”

But in between games, is this dancing on the edge of becoming psychological?

“Maybe, (but) I really don’t know the answer to that question,” Miles replied. “We just haven’t made a play on the ball all year, and that’s the bottom line of it, and we’re still working on getting it.

“Obviously, last year we led the ACC in interceptions, and this year we don’t have any. So, we’re trying to make those plays on the ball like we did last year.”

And so far, one of the strangest stat lines remains intact.