CHAPEL HILL – North Carolina has an offensive problem, and it needs tweaking.
That is what UNC Coach Hubert Davis said following his team’s tenth loss in its last 21 games Monday night, which was also its fourth in five contests, and second in its last three at the Smith Center.
The Tar Heels dropped an 80-72 decision to No. 15 Miami, in part because they were 5-for-31 from 3-point range. But this wasn’t a simple matter of just not hitting shots, and that being the sole difference between winning and losing.
The greater picture suggests it’s the manner the Heels got those shots. That they converted 29 field goal attempts indicates they scored fairly often, but that just six of those baskets were assisted reflects a bigger issue. Lots and lots and lots of buckets were scored off the dribble.
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“I felt like sometimes we became stagnant a little bit on the offense end when a guy has the ball, kinda just standing there, not moving on the week side or exchanging or trying to make a play for each other,” junior point guard RJ Davis said when asked what the problem was Monday night. “Plus, on top of that, when we drive and did kick we didn't make the shots.”
In a 91-71 win over Clemson on Saturday, the Tar Heels assisted on 17 of 32 field goals, which is 53.1 percent. That is an ideal percentage, especially for a team with two guards plenty capable of creating their own scoring opportunities.
But that responsibility was heaped onto Davis and Caleb Love more Monday than should be necessary, and it wasn’t the first time this season.
A major problem for the Tar Heels is their set plays, of which they run many, were snuffed out by the Hurricanes. All teams have a fair idea of what opponents prefer to run, but stopping it isn’t always easy. Yet, it has been for Duke, Pittsburgh, and now Miami just in recent weeks. Wake Forest clamped down knowing what the Heels were going to do in the first half of its win over Carolina last week, too.
“Yeah, I would say that,” senior Armando Bacot said, agreeing to the premise that teams know what the Heels are running and simply don’t allow it to happen. “But at the same time, too, we’ve just got to go get it. You’ve just got to want it at the end of the day. That want-to can take over just about anything.”
It helps if the Heels (16-10, 8-7 ACC), or any team, are getting consistent production from the fourth and fifth scoring options on the floor. As challenging as it has been, Davis, Love, and Bacot have produced, though not always as efficiently as they’d like. Wing Leaky Black has added some to his offensive input this season, too, but isn’t consistent and opponents still don’t defend him as if he’s going to go off at any time.
Pete Nance, and the four spot on offense overall, is where Carolina’s greatest concerns lie. Aside from a few games, Nance just hasn’t added much to the box scores, and he’s still trying to fit in. Given that the Heels are 26 games into the season, and only five contests remain before the ACC Tournament, the odds he will suddenly mesh and become a regular weapon are slim.
The thing is, with UNC running so many set plays, always after opponents’ made field goals, Hubert Davis says, and often lately even after their misses, it is mandatory that all five players on the floor be defended to some degree. But that isn’t the case.
Opponents lay off of Nance whenever he is outside of the lane, dropping a second defender to double Bacot in the post. They do it to Black, as well. Miami did this and limited Bacot to just six field goal attempts (one in the second half), while Nance scored only two points on 1-for-5 shooting.
Over UNC’s last four contests, excluding the second half in last week’s loss at Wake Forest, as that game was essentially over at halftime, Nance has scored six points in the last 140 competitive minutes. He is 3-for-23 in those seven (of eight) halves, including 0-for-11 from the perimeter.
In Nance’s last 11 games, connecting before and after his lower back injury more than a month ago, he is 32-for-96 (33.3 percent) from the field, including 7-for-40 (17.5 percent) from 3-point range. That also excused the game in which he was injured less than two minutes in and did not return. Nance has not attempted a free throw in six of his last eight games.
Needless to say, getting Nance more involved, and receiving an increase in production from the 6-foot-11 forward, would be a boon to the Heels.
“For sure,” Love said Monday night. “I just feel like he's got to keep his confidence high, trust his work, and he’s made a lot of threes in his career. I have been there before, so all I can tell him is don't lose his confidence and keep shooting; the tables are going to turn.”
But what if this is who Nance is this season, and he simply doesn’t mesh? Conventional wisdom suggests if it hasn’t happened by mid-February, it likely won’t.
“There are a number of things we can do, and that is something we are going to look at, pivot, alter…,” UNC’s coach said. “We have to find other ways, other players to put on the floor.”
Other players?
The core of the issue isn’t just getting more production from the four spot, but it’s forcing teams to defend UNC’s four spot. If that happens, it opens up more room for Bacot to operate, and more driving-and-kick lanes for the guards, which feeds into their strengths.
“There are a number of different ways; different ways where we can get the ball to (Bacot) on different parts on the floor, try some different personnel,” Hubert Davis said.
Carolina’s struggles at the four spot isn’t lost on anyone. Bacot said other guys need to produce. Love said other guys need to produce. And their second-year coach said other guys need to produce.
As much as the regulars must play at a higher level, getting something of note, night in and night out, from the four spot is paramount, or this team doesn’t stand much of a chance at getting its season turned around.