The North Carolina basketball program is entering its third season under Hubert Davis. That also means the head coach is approaching his third Early Signing Period. The 2024 version begins on November 8, and runs through the 15th.
The Tar Heels currently stand in a spot of power at third in the 2024 team rankings. They ended up No. 41 last year, and 12th one class earlier which was the first for Coach Davis.
Rankings alone would indicate that recruiting is trending in the right direction for the UNC staff. But the present, the future, and Davis' record when compared against an illustrious program history also suggests that the Tar Heels' fortunes are in good hands.
Hubert Davis has brought in some can't miss guys
Well, maybe there is no sure thing, but statistical trends indicate that Elliot Cadeau, Ian Jackson, and Drake Powell are too talented to be busts. We just ran a research based article in which we looked at all of the 14 top-ten high school prospects that have committed to the Tar Heels during the Rivals era. Keep in mind that the list includes these three players who have yet to play their first game at Chapel Hill. Of the other 11 players, 10 were taken in the first round of the NBA Draft.
Of course there are always outliers, but prospects at this type of high level normally do not have a lot of mystery surrounding them going into college. The great Bob Gibbons used to say five-stars meant a player was expected to come in and not only start, but make a major impact as freshman. This makes total sense when one considers that exactly half of the top-10 players who have come to North Carolina in the past 20 years were named to the ACC All-Freshman Team. One-third won the ACC Freshman of the Year. That means the statistical trend says one of these three will that award as well.
Based on past performances there is every reason to believe Cadeau will have a strong freshman season, and the trend will continue the following year with Jackson and Powell.
There will be more five-stars to follow
Rivals began ranking players in 2003. Since then North Carolina has landed 26 five-star players. Make that 27 if you include Stanford transfer, Harrison Ingram. That averages out to just over one per class.
Coach Davis has performed very well on the recruiting trail when it comes to getting the top players. The current North Carolina team will have a trio of five-star recruits that includes Armando Bacot (signed by Roy Williams), Harrison Ingram, and Elliot Cadeau. Powell and Jackson makes numbers four and five.
That means Davis is staying on the historical track, and is not showing any indication of letting up. Of the eight players UNC has offered in the Class of 2025, seven have five-stars. But that doesn't mean Davis is done with 2024. Although we don't look for him to add any more current high school seniors, just about all of these juniors who have been offered are open to reclassification.
We would be very surprised if North Carolina doesn't land at least one out of this group. We would not be shocked if the Heels get a future five-star for each class.
This North Carolina team has the first trio of five-stars since
2020-21. That team actually had four: Armando Bacot who was ranked No. 27 in the Class of 2019, Day'Ron Sharpe who was ranked No. 13 in 2020, Caleb Love was ranked No. 17, and Walker Kessler who came in at No. 24. The down side is that team will be remembered as Roy Williams last one. They finished 18-11, and was banished from the NCAA Tournament in the first round by Wisconsin.
This squad is headed by Bacot who is still around three years later as well as Ingram who was ranked No. 16 in the Class of 2021, and Cadeau who finished No. 8 in 2023 after reclassification.
One and done is not a done deal
Of the ten top-10 players who have made it to campus in the past two decades, only three have left for the pros after one season. That would be Brandan Wright in 2007, Nassir Little in 2019, and Cole Anthony one year later.
Expand the number to include all of the 26 five-stars since 2004, and six total Tar Heels have been one-and-done. Marvin Williams Jr, Day'Ron Sharpe, and Coby White declared for the NBA Draft after their freshman seasons. Sharpe would have been the last player to do so in 2021.
Ian Jackson has probably had one and done in his sights seeing that he was one of the most hyped prospects at his young age when he entered high school. Drake Powell on the other hand has been a late bloomer in the high school ranks, and how much he may have focused on an early departure from college is up for debate. Elliot Cadeau recently stated that one and done could be a possibility, but there is also a plan for a second season in Chapel Hill.
Reclassifications and more reclassifications
We normally have a great idea what the recruiting classes are going to look like after the Early Signing Period in November. There are always holdovers that don't commit until the following spring, but now it has gotten more unsure thanks to the transfer portal. Now with lucrative NIL possibilities available at every turn look for reclassification to amp up even more.
There have already been a couple of juniors move up a class. Reclassing really hit the headlines when Cooper Flagg opted out of the 2025 class to move up to 2024. Flagg is out of the question for North Carolina fans, but they shouldn't turn a blind eye to all of the current five-star juniors that their favorite team has offered.
A.J. Dybantsa, Jasper Johnson, Isiah Harwell, Darryn Peterson, Koa Peat, Bryson Tiller, and Caleb Wilson area all candidates to graduate high school next spring. Interestingly enough, Cameron Boozer, who is currently the top ranked player in 2025, is probably the most likely five-star to stay in his current grade due to his young age. The same can be said for his twin brother, Cayden, who also has an offer.
Reclassification doesn't stop there. The 2026 group is also top heavy with talent on the front end, so there will probably be more exits to a higher grade in the future. Dybantsa began the trend earlier in the month. He was the top-ranked player in 2026, and could very well assume that role again in his current class. Dybantsa is also on a very short list of players who can make an argument as the best high school player regardless of class. Flagg and Cameron Boozer are the others. Dybantsa's move hits differently than Flagg however. Flagg committed to Duke Monday morning. Dybantsa is not believed to have a favorite, but UNC was his first blue-blood offer.
