UNC's ACC Tournament Scenarios Are Seeds 4-8
Not only does North Carolina need to defeat Duke on Saturday at the Smith Center to enhance its prospects of landing a spot in the NCAA Tournament, the Tar Heels are also jockeying for seeding in next week’s ACC Tournament.
A win over Duke likely would ensure UNC an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament, but it could also mean the Tar Heels get a bye until Thursday next week in Greensboro, site of this year’s league tournament, provided it finishes the regular season with the No. 4 seed, which is the highest it can place.
With 44 of the ACC’s 244 scheduled games cancelled because of COVID-19 protocols, the imbalanced schedule teams will end up playing in league competition is forcing the ACC to use winning percentage to determine seeding. Tiebreakers will be implemented when needed, as well.
It also must be noted, actual seeding may not be fully set in stone after this weekend’s games due to the possibility a team may not be able to participate next week if saddled by positive COVID tests or contact tracing. For example, it remains to be seen if Virginia Tech will even be in Greensboro, as the Hokies’ games this week versus Louisville and NC State were cancelled because of contact tracing within the program.
What happens if the Hokies cannot play? At 9-4 in league play, they are guaranteed a bye until Thursday as one of the top four seeds. If they cannot participate, teams below would move up a spot, but the structure of the field could also be altered, as it would be a 14-team event instead of a 15-team event. The ACC has not yet released a plan on what would happen in the event the Hokies or any other team misses out on the ACC Tournament.
As for the Tar Heels, who go into the Duke game at 15-9 overall and 9-6 in the ACC, a win would conclude their regular season at 10-6 in league play. Georgia Tech is currently 10-6 and finishes the regular season at Wake Forest, so if that game is played, a tiebreaker won’t be necessary.
It might with respect to Clemson, however. The Tigers are also 9-6 in ACC play after falling at Syracuse on Wednesday night. Clemson closes the regular season at home versus struggling Pittsburgh, so if the Tigers and Tar Heels both end up at 10-6, Clemson will get the nod because it defeated UNC in early February at Littlejohn Coliseum.
If Clemson loses to Pitt and UNC beats Duke, the Heels would finish ahead of Brad Brownell’s team. Then there is the issue of Louisville.
The Cardinals are 8-4 in ACC play and host Virginia on Saturday. A win and Louisville ends up at 9-4, which is a winning percent of 69.2. UNC at 10-6 would have a winning percent of 62.5. A Louisville loss to UVA and the Cards would be 8-5, which is a winning percent of 61.5 percent, so UNC would get the nod in that scenario.
So, for Carolina to finish as the No. 4 seed and get a bye, it must defeat Duke, Clemson must lose to Pitt, Louisville must lose to Virginia, and Wake must beat Georgia Tech.
Now, that happening appears to be a long shot on paper, so how else may things shake out for UNC?
Multiple scenarios can lead to UNC being the fifth or sixth seed, and it combines various outcomes of the GT-Wake, Pitt-Clemson, and UVA-Louisville games. UNC’ loses tiebreakers to Clemson and Georgia Tech, the latter of which it lost to in Atlanta in December. If Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Louisville win this weekend, and each should be favored, the Heels will end up as the No. 7 seed.
If the Tar Heels lose to Duke, however, the best seed they could land is No. 7 and lowest seed is No. 8. As the eighth seed, which means a loss to Duke on Saturday, and it’s a near lock that Carolina would play ninth-seed Duke on Wednesday in the second round.