North Carolina still has a Quad 1 win, now that Pittsburgh has risen to No. 74 in the current NET ratings, which are crunched every night after the final Division One game is completed.
Carolina’s win at Duke was a Q1 victory when it happened, but after the Blue Devils fell at home to Notre Dame on Tuesday, they dropped to No. 76, which now makes it a Quad 2 win for the Tar Heels. To notch Q1 wins, teams must either defeat a team ranked in the NET 1-30 at home, 1-50 on a neutral floor or 1-75 on the road.
So with that in mind, and Carolina now at 1-5 in Q1 games and No. 55 overall in the NET, it is clear the Tar Heels must win quite a few games to eventually land in the NCAA Tournament, but they also could use some help. But from where? That is what we will explore in this piece.
As it stands, UNC is 12-6 overall and 7-4 in the ACC. Roy Williams’ team is 1-5 in Quad 1 games, 5-1 in Q2 games (the loss at NC State), 4-0 in Q3 and 2-0 in Q4 games. The Tar Heels have been bouncing around the 48-57 range for the last few weeks, but to ensure a spot in the NCAA field of 68, the Heels probably need to climb into the mid-40s or perhaps slightly higher.
They need to win games, but they also need previous opponents to win games. Now, that can be a bit counter-productive within the ACC, as each win means an opponent also lost, but with Q1 games apparently more important this year than anytime in the past, a goal should be at least three such victories by Selection Sunday. Furthermore, UNC can help its NET by getting to around 10 Q2 victories, as well.
Before looking at how UNC’s nonconference opponents can impact its resume, the Heels would be well served if Pitt can win enough games to finish in the top 75. It would help if Duke does, too, but the Blue Devils are trending in the wrong direction, and it’s doubtful Carolina fans will root for Duke under any circumstance, even if a Devils’ win helps UNC get another needed Q1 win on its resume.
Also note that if No. 62 Georgia Tech can stay in the top 75, that remains a Q1 loss. Syracuse is up to No. 49, so it’s a Q2 win (was at home) but the Heels also go there in a few weeks, so there is a chance to land a Q1 victory. Virginia, this weekend’s opponent in Charlottesville, is No. 7, Florida State, which visits Chapel Hill in a couple of weeks, is No. 24. Louisville also soon visits, and it is No. 35.
Moreover, Virginia Tech is at No. 34, and if the Hokies keep playing well and the Tar Heels defeat them in Chapel Hill next week, that could be another Q1 win. Also, Clemson is No. 47, so that will likely remain a Q1 loss, but if the Tigers and Heels make up their game in Chapel Hill, a Q2 win over a team in the 40s would help the Heels a lot. So, there are clearly opportunities remaining on the ACC slate for UNC to significantly help itself.
Outside the league, here is what UNC fans should root for:
One reason UNC hasn’t ascended that much while winning games is because its nonconference opponents have struggled of late.
Iowa has lost four of its last five games and stands at 13-6 overall and 7-5 in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are currently No. 10 in the NET, abut still have a challenging slate remaining, with trips to Michigan State (NET No. 83), Wisconsin (No. 18), Ohio State (No. 6) and Michigan (No. 3) remaining. This will remain a Q1 loss regardless, but if the Hawkeyes drop in the NET, it won’t help the Heels.
Texas, which is No. 21 in the NET, was in the top five of the AP rankings and near it in the NET not too long ago, but now the Longhorns (12-5 overall, 6-4 Big 12) have lost three of four and have only won once since Jan. 16 because of a COVID pause, plus the ‘Horns have simply struggled of late.
Six games remain as scheduled, including Oklahoma (NET No. 19) and Texas Tech (No. 14) on the road and West Virginia (No. 17) and Kansas (No. 22) at home. The Longhorns must remain No. 50 or higher to remain a Q1 loss, so that likely won’t change, but it was a close game and the higher they climb the better for UNC.
Stanford, 12-7 overall, 8-5 in the Pac-12 and No. 58 in the NET, is the non-ACC team UNC fans should pay most attention to. Neutral court wins over teams 1-50 are Q1 victories, and the Heels defeated the Cardinal in Asheville, so Stanford going on a run and finishing among the top 50 of the NET would be big for Carolina.
Jerrod Haase’s team still has games remaining versus three of the top four teams in the Pac-12 standings: No. 15 Colorado at home; No. 59 Oregon at home; and No, 16 USC on the road. Those games will not only be important to Stanford, but also for UNC.
Time is running out for Kentucky to make anything of its season. After opening SEC play at 3-0, the Wildcats have lost seven of their last eight, including a heartbreaker at home to Arkansas on Tuesday night. At 5-13 overall and 4-7 in the SEC, UK is No. 80 in the NET, presumably because of its fairly challenging schedule, and it appears the only path for John Calipari’s team to make the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament, if it’s even held.
But UK was a neutral site game for UNC, so if the Wildcats get hot, they could climb into the top 50 of the NET, which would give Carolina another Q1 victory. Here are the Cats’ remaining opportunities: NET No. 63 Auburn at home; at No. 147 Vanderbilt; at No. 8 Tennessee; No. 133 Texas A&M at home; No. 27 Florida at home; and at No. 64 Ole Miss.
Whatever happens with UNLV (NET No. 179), College of Charleston (No. 213), and NC Central (No. 295) likely won’t affect UNC’s resume too much, though if the Rebels unexpectedly got hot that might help a little, but not much at this point.
So, with less than a month remaining in the regular season and UNC still on the NCAA fence, in addition to rooting for the Tar Heels, UNC fans will want to pay attention to what Iowa, Texas, Stanford and Kentucky do the rest of the way. Them winning games is good for UNC’s resume.