Published Mar 14, 2025
Where the Heels Stand...
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Andrew Jones  •  TarHeelIllustrated
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CHARLOTTE – RJ Davis believes the Tar Heels should be in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s quite likely they have more work to do. And with the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday night against top-ranked Duke, the task is making March Madness is considerable.

Or is it?

To the surprise of many, notable TV bracketologists actually have no impact on the committee’s selections. None. So, what they are projecting is more speculation than anything else.

Of course, if North Carolina’s second all-time leading scorer has any say over it, Thursday’s win over Wake Forest put the Heels in the field, not to mention the recent eye test.

“A hundred percent,” he said inside Spectrum Center after scoring 23 points against the Demon Deacons. “I think we’ve shown that these past couple of weeks.”

The Tar Heels have won eight of their last nine games, including five consecutive victories away from Chapel Hill, and sit at 22-12 overall. UNC went 20-13 two years ago and did not receive an invitation to the big dance.

This year’s team has closed its season stronger and is also aided by a weaker and thinner bubble than what it typical going into the final weekend before Selection Sunday. Plus, UNC has received some help by some teams it’s competing with for inclusion having lost in their league tournaments, such as Indiana and Ohio State.

No bid stealers yet from other leagues has helped, but the Mountain West and Atlantic-10 are ongoing and both leagues have enough depth a team not slated for an at-large spot could win the automatic bid by winning their tournaments.

Let’s take a look at UNC’s current resume, some teams it’s competing with for slots, notes about the selection process, and what the Heels still must do to make the field:


*The committee convened this week and will remain together through the release of the bracket. It should be noted that UNC AD Bubba Cunningham is head of the selection committee.

*They use a variety of metrics gauging teams’ strengths well beyond head-to-head, road wins, etc. The NET is a primary formula for the committee, but in selecting the at-large teams, comprehensive metrics KPI, SOR, BPI, KenPom, and SAG are all used.

*The selection committee does not pay any attention to projected brackets online or on TV. So no, Joe Lunardi has no impact on the process.

*UNC moved up a spot to No. 35 in the NET after beating Wake.

*NET Criteria: ---Q1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75 ---Q2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135 ---Q3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 135-240 ---Q4: Home 161-353; Neutral 201-353; Away 241-353

*UNC is 1-11 in Quad 1 games, 8-0 in Quad 2 games, 7-1 in Quad 3 games, and 6-0 in quad 4 games

*The fewest number of Q1 wins of any team ranked ahead of the Heels in the NET is four by No. 8 Gonzaga, four by No. 21 St. Mary’s, and four by No. 26 Louisville.

*Mississippi State, Texas each and Oklahoma have seven Quad 1 wins but are ranked below UNC at Nos. 34, 38, and 44 respectively.

*Teams with six Quad 1 wins ranked below UNC: No. 41 Ohio State; No. 48 Memphis; No. 50 West Virginia.

*Other bubble teams:

No. 38 Texas (19-14) – 7-10 Q1, 3-4 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4

---Faces Tennessee in SEC quarterfinals Friday

No. 41 Ohio State (17-15) – 6-11 Q1, 3-4 Q2, 2-0 Q3, 6-0 Q4

---Eliminated from Big Ten Tournament

***Lost 5 of last 7 games

No. 43 Boise State (22-9) – 2-5 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 5-1 Q3, 10-1 Q4

---Faces New Mexico in MWC semifinals Friday

No. 46 Xavier (21-11) – 2-9 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 5-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4

---Eliminated from Big East Tournament

No. 51 San Diego State (20-9) – 3-6 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 4-1 Q3, 8-0 Q4

---Eliminated from MWC Tournament

No. 52 Colorado State (23-9) – 1-5 Q1, 7-2 Q2, 4-2 Q3, 11-0 Q4

---Faces Utah State in MWC semifinals Friday

No. 54 – Indiana (19-13) – 4-13 Q1, 4-0 Q2, 7-0 Q3, 4-0 Q4

---Eliminated from Big Ten Tournament

No. 55 Villanova (19-14) – 3-7 Q1, 4-4 Q2, 5-2 Q3, 7-1 Q4

---Eliminated from Big East Tournament

No. 61 UC-Irvine (26-5) – 1-0 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 11-3 Q3, 11-0 Q4

---Faces Cal Poly in the Big West semifinals Friday

No. 67 Dayton (21-9) – 3-3 Q1, 25 Q2, 10-1 Q3, 6-0 Q4

---Faces St. Joe’s in Atlantic-10 quarterfinals Friday